Speak With Data

It’s official! Purdue is in a bowl game! On 27 December at 8:30pm EST on Fox the Boilers will take on the Wildcats of Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. This preview will include both information about the destination and sponsor in addition to the football preview. If you just want football talk, skip to the heading “Didn’t We Already Beat Arizona This Season?” Where Is This Game? The Foster Farms Bowl is held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, where the San Francisco 49ers “play football”. Santa Clara is just outside San Jose, CA, and is known for being where Levi’s Stadium is and being home to the Santa Clara Vanguard. Look, I’m not from California, so the only things I know about this town are related to football and drum corps. Google is from California, and so provided these lovely maps to help place Santa Clara. Figure 1: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, and the San Francisco Bay Area [1] For those attending the game, you have the option of three airports:

This is the first time the Bucket has been home since I was a junior at Purdue – the first year of Darrell Hazell’s tenure in West Lafayette. I am not nearly a good enough writer to capture my happiness in this moment. Purdue spent my entire post-college life (and half of college) being a joke nationally with very little to be proud of on Saturday afternoons in the fall. In just one year the narrative has changed. The Boilers won five games against FBS competition (a winning percentage of 11.36%) and three conference games (9.09%) during the 48-game Hazell era; in a single season, Brohm has won six FBS games, including four in conference, for a 50.00% winning percentage overall and 44.44% in conference. And with 6.8 second order wins (wins expected based on per play success rate) per S&P+, one may say that Purdue underachieved in the win column compared to how the Boilers played. Jeff Brohm has done something incredible this year, and capped it off with a win against IU – finally b

Kinnick Stadium is a place where strange, strange things happen in football. Like, for example, the irrational Hawkeye win over Ohio State this year. This weekend’s Purdue win wasn’t quite one of those strange things; S&P+ gave the Boilers a 49% chance to win (Purdue +.4 point spread), which makes this barely an upset, even if Vegas had Iowa as a 6 point favorite. Still, it’s a huge win, keeping bowl hopes alive for another week, and setting up a Bucket game with the winner going to the postseason. It was yet another day of mediocre offense and pretty good defense, but it got the job done [1,2]. Holy Sacks Batman! Purdue has struggled to apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks for most of the 2017 campaign; coming into this week, they had averaged a sack on 4.79% of dropbacks (FBS average 6.26%), which has contributed to the defense’s vulnerability to the pass (prior to the game v. Iowa, they allowed 6.54 yards per dropback, compared to an FBS average of 6.32 yards per d

It’s that time of year again. And by that time, I mean the time when you aren’t sure if it’s too early to hear Christmas music yet. Is it OK to walk into a certain coffee shop chain in early November and grab a seasonal beverage that can barely call itself coffee? Is it too early to hum a carol when I’ll be waiting to get on a plane the day before Thanksgiving? While driving to your favorite Black Friday activity (the correct answer is skeet shooting or watching football), should the speakers be spreading holiday cheer? Or do you need to wait until you break out the advent calendars to put on a festive record? To answer this age old question, I’m trusting the fine Google searches of my fellow Americans. Using Google Trends data from 2012-2016, I’m going to compare each week of the years’ average searches for the term “Christmas music” as a percentage of the maximum to determine when Americans start listening to Christmas music [1]. Figure 1: Christmas Graph, Oh Christmas Graph

Coming into this game, I had no idea what to make of the Northwestern Wildcats. After compiling the stats, I still am not sure what they are besides a team that beat Purdue. The Boilermakers actually had an edge in yards per play, with 5.71 yards per play compared to the Wildcats’ 4.95 yards per play, but struggled to put up points, managing only .93 points per drive compared to the Wildcats’ 1.77. Field position played some role, with Northwestern on average starting at their own 32 yard line compared to the Boilermakers’ average starting field position of their own 27 yard line. But a number of key areas held the Boilermakers back, and with this loss hopes of a post season are all but lost [1,2]. A Litter Box Worthy Rushing Attack Purdue’s offense has leaned on a solid rushing attack to succeed, averaging 5.27 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10 yards per rush). The Wildcats’ strong rushing defense, allowing 3.85 yards per rush (FBS average: 4.96 yards per rush), was unfortu

Purdue, after losing winnable games against Nebraska and Rutgers, came up with a definitive 29-10 win against Illinois. There were a lot of good things coming out of the game. The defense played very well, and the rushing attack played the kind of game needed for Purdue to compete with inconsistent play from the passing game. Unfortunately, David Blough suffered a dislocated angle, broken fibula, and ligament damage, which will end his solid season. To cheer yourself up, here are some numbers about the rest of the team [1,2]. Running Away With It Not too surprising given Purdue’s depth at running back, the rushing attack has been the strength of Purdue’s offense. But Jeff Brohm’s instincts in play calling have traditionally been to rely on the passing game; on the season, Purdue has passed on 53.3% of plays which is above the FBS average of 47.4% of plays. In 2016 Western Kentucky passed on 52.4% of plays. Passing the ball is likely where Brohm is comfortable. Against Illino

That was a game that could have, should have, been a win. Instead, it was a close loss. There was a lot of good in the performance of the Boilers under the lights on a cold October night, but some deficiencies in play that held back a win. What is most worrying is that many of these issues are continuing issues that have plagued the Boilers all season, most notably dropped passes holding back the passing attack and struggles defending the pass. Gandalf is Not On The Purdue Defense  If there is anything good to take away from recent Purdue defensive performances, it is the dominance of the rush defense. Coming into the game Purdue had been allowing 4.57 yards per rush, and were facing a Nebraska defense struggling to move the ball with 4.55 yards per rush. Nebraska was absolutely shutdown by the Boilermakers, averaging only 2.54 yards per rush. The Huskers only hope running the ball was freshman Jaylin Bradley, who wasn't seen until the second half and averaged 6.00 yards per r