Speak With Data

In the later half of this Premier League season, there has been discussion of a shifting of power between the two North London clubs, historically dominate Arsenal and the long-mediocre Tottenham Hotspur (1). This discussion peaked after a poor performance by Arsenal in their April 30th meeting at White Hart Lane, with Tottenham winning 2-0. Tottenham as been riding high this season; currently in second place in the table, they have punched their ticket to the Champions League, and if first place Chelsea stumbles down the stretch, could win the Premier League. Arsenal, after a hot start, have struggled this season; dominated by their rival clubs at the top of the Premier League, embarrassed by Bayern Munich in the Champions League, and on the outside of the top four. Having sunken to as low as sixth, the Gunners are now 4 points behind Liverpool's fourth place and Champions League. Their only glimmer of success has been reaching the FA Cup Final; while an accomplishment, they had b...

Definitions: Pythagorean Expectation, Preseason = The previous year's Real Pythagorean Expectation, with a factor of regression to the mean based on the year-to-year correlation of  Real Pythagorean Expectation. Pythagorean Expectation, Real =  Pythagorean expectation of points , based upon goals scored and goals allowed so far this season. An exponent of 1.27, derived from analysis of previous NASL seasons, is used Pythagorean Expectation, Bayesian = The main power ranking. Using Bayes' Theorem, updates its value accounting for new information. Begins with the preseason ranking, then updates week to week after that.  Expected Final Points = Using the Bayesian Pythagorean Expectation, the number of points a team has already, and the possible points remaining, is found Why am I doing a power ranking for a Division II soccer league? Because it is the league Indy has a team in.