Skip to main content

NASL Power Rankings, Games Through 5/5/2017



Definitions:
  • Pythagorean Expectation, Preseason = The previous year's Real Pythagorean Expectation, with a factor of regression to the mean based on the year-to-year correlation of  Real Pythagorean Expectation.
  • Pythagorean Expectation, Real = Pythagorean expectation of points, based upon goals scored and goals allowed so far this season. An exponent of 1.27, derived from analysis of previous NASL seasons, is used
  • Pythagorean Expectation, Bayesian = The main power ranking. Using Bayes' Theorem, updates its value accounting for new information. Begins with the preseason ranking, then updates week to week after that. 
  • Expected Final Points = Using the Bayesian Pythagorean Expectation, the number of points a team has already, and the possible points remaining, is found
Why am I doing a power ranking for a Division II soccer league? Because it is the league Indy has a team in.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Brohm and Calhoun: Purdue's New Top Two Choices Analyzed

Earlier in the silly season  coaching search, the top two coaching candidates floated by Purdue's fan base were Western Michigan's P.J. Fleck and former LSU head coach Les Miles. In recent days, it has appeared neither may end up in West Lafayette. Yesterday, news-ish broke-ish that a deal was done-ish with Purdue and current Western Kentucky head coach Jeff Brohm.  Western Kentucky was revealed to be beginning its own coach search, while coach without an agent Jeff Brohm stated no deal existed and he would not think about future plans until after the C-USA championship game today. Another name floated was current Air Force Academy head coach Troy Calhoun. Which are two odd choices when considered together; at Air Force Calhoun ran a run-heavy option offense (although he has experience coaching quarterbacks in the NFL under Gary Kubiak) and Brohm's offense at WKU was a pass-oriented spread offense. Using the same methods I used to look at Purdue's last few coaches , I

Disney Princesses Are Not All, In Fact, Princesses

This past weekend, I went to see Disney's new (and very good) animated film Moana . There was a (genre aware) exchange between the title character and the demigod Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson  Maui regarding whether or not the title character was a princess. Maui's evidence is as follows: she  a) is "daughter of a chief," b) "wears a dress," and c) has  "an animal sidekick." Of course, the definition of princess is typically understood as a woman who fit one of the two descriptions: is daughter of a monarch, or the wife or widow of a prince (in turn defined as the son of a monarch, a monarch in his own right, or the wife of a princess). Disney markets 11 individuals as "Disney Princesses": Snow White, Cinderella, Aurora, Ariel, Belle, Jasmine, Pocahontas, Mulan, Tiana, Rapunzel and Merida. They also market the two female protogonists (and daughters of monarchs) of Frozen, Anna and Elsa (who is in fact a monarch), in a similar man