The first home game for Brohm went exactly how you expect Big Ten-MAC games to go: we dropped 44 on THE Ohio (and only gave up 21). For those in West Lafayette, I hope you enjoyed some discounts at UBS on Monday (before their owner realizes 5% per touchdown is a terrible idea with an offensive minded coach). For the rest of you, here is some nice analysis (and bad puns) available for the great price of $0.00 (Touchdown Monday discounts accepted any day of the week).
Blough-ing Away Doubts
Once again, two quarterbacks played. However, unlike last week where the Boilers played rather similarly with either, Blough's performance separated him from Sindelar.
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Figure 1: Drives by Each Quarterback (Sparks and Blough Split a Drive Without Passing)
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With Sindelar in (excluding the final drive in which he took a knee to finish the game) Purdue's offense was hardly efficient, scoring 2.5 points per drive and managing only 4.89 yards per play. Blough led the Boilermakers down the field significantly more effectively, averaging over 5 points per drive and almost 21 yards per play. Blough's drives had explosiveness and efficiency. They also were longer, with an average of 58.83 yards compared to Sindelar's 31.75 [1].
Why this disparity? Similar to last week, Blough's accuracy was greater, particularly on the deep ball.
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| Figure 2: Passers' Performances Against Ohio (Sparks Did Not Throw) |
Sindelar mightily struggled with accuracy, having a 40% completion percentage. This contributed to a very low yards per attempt at 6. He also struggled throwing the ball deep, missing receivers on long throws and managing only 15 yards per completion (compared to Blough's 21.36). Blough was spectacular under the Friday Night Lights, posting a completion percentage of nearly 85% and excelling on deep passes with 18.08 yards per attempt and a whopping 21.36 yards per completion [2]. This led ESPN's QBR to rate Blough's performance as a 99.4 out of 100, compared to Sindelar's struggling performance of a 32.2 [3,4]. Granted, as a result of a the great day the Boilers had on the ground, Blough only had 13 attempts which contributed to his efficiency on those attempts. However, if Brohm will look to have success on the ground (or with short passing) and convert that into deep ball opportunities, Blough's greater deep ball ability will be instrumental.
Over the season, Blough and Sindelar's numbers stand at the following:
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| Figure 3: Passers' Performance In 2017 (Sparks has yet to attempt a pass) |
Blough has, because of stronger performances in terms of accuracy and his deep ball ability, put better numbers in the vast majority of statistical categories. Blough has established himself as the best option at quarterback. Sindelar has potential to be a great player in the future, but needs work in terms of accuracy before he should be considered the quarterback of today.
A Fuller Running Attack
Going into this season, the Boilers' depth at running back seemed one of the few strengths of the team. Against THE Ohio their rushing attack delivered, racking up 263 yards on 44 carries for an average of 6.00 yards per carry [2]. Compared to an FBS average of 4.54 yards per carry, the Boilers had a banner day [5]. Given the success the Boilers had, Brohm's play calling tilted in this direction as well with 65.7% of plays called to be runs.
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| Figure 4: Purdue Rushing Statistics by Player |
Leading this attack was Tario Fuller who had 142 yards on 16 rushes for 8.9 yards per carry, nearly double the FBS average. Four players matches or exceeded Sindelar's 6 yards per attempt, and five exceeded the FBS average. The rushing attack was efficient, almost to the point of embarrassing one of the quarterbacks.
This is against a team that was rather effective defending the run last year, ranking 27th in rushing S&P+ on defense [6]. If similar performances can follow, this a great sign for the Boilers.
In Deep Ball Trouble
One issue that appeared from this game was Purdue's struggles against the deep ball in the passing game. In terms of stats, the Boilers allowed 8.14 yards per passing attempt and 13.89 yards per completion. Yielding over a first down per completion is not great; even worse were the chances THE Ohio failed to take advantage of. Multiple deep passes sailed over the heads of receivers who were outpacing Purdue's defensive backs. Against the Bobcats and their inaccuracy (58.62% completion), it's recoverable. Against the higher caliber teams of the Big Ten, that may performance may not be enough to provide defensive stops [2].
Up Next: The Battle of Gold and Black
On Saturday the Boilers will take on the other other Tigers in the SEC: the only-part-of-the-South-because-of-nineteenth-century-politics Missouri. Mizzou has had a poor defensive showing so far this season, ranking 102nd in defensive S&P+ with 34.2 expected points allowed. This performance led to the firing of DeMontie Cross, their defensive coordinator, on Sunday after a 31-13 loss to South Carolina and after allowing 43 points the previous week against Missouri State (even while the Tigers scored 72 points) [7]. The Tigers have managed to have an offensive ranking of 11, with 39 expected points, but that was buoyed by their opening basketball football game [8].
Given Purdue's offensive performance, Missouri's offensive performance, and Missouri's total lack of defense there is likely to be a shootout in Columbia on Saturday. Based on the Boilers' and Tigers' S&P+ ratings, Pythagorean expectation, and Log5 the Boilers have a 33.97% chance of winning [8,9,10]. Because of the relative strengths of opponents I'd peg that as slightly pessimistic, but we are still underdogs. And hey, as someone who bought tickets for this game I can dream...
Boiler Up!
References:
[1] http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/boxscore?id=27211
[2] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2017-09-08-purdue.html
[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3116188/david-blough
[4] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3791146/elijah-sindelar
[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/sort/yardsPerRushAttempt
[6] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef2016
[7] http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/mizzou/mizzou-fires-defensive-coordinator-demontie-cross/article_0caf93dc-14c9-522d-a2b5-ed72c71fe564.html
[8] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
[8] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
[9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation#Use_in_pro_football
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5
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