Coming into this game, I had no idea what to make of the
Northwestern Wildcats. After compiling the stats, I still am not sure what they
are besides a team that beat Purdue. The Boilermakers actually had an edge in
yards per play, with 5.71 yards per play compared to the Wildcats’ 4.95 yards
per play, but struggled to put up points, managing only .93 points per drive
compared to the Wildcats’ 1.77. Field position played some role, with
Northwestern on average starting at their own 32 yard line compared to the
Boilermakers’ average starting field position of their own 27 yard line. But a
number of key areas held the Boilermakers back, and with this loss hopes of a
post season are all but lost [1,2].
A Litter Box Worthy
Rushing Attack
Purdue’s offense has leaned on a solid rushing attack to
succeed, averaging 5.27 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10 yards per rush). The
Wildcats’ strong rushing defense, allowing 3.85 yards per rush (FBS average:
4.96 yards per rush), was unfortunately too strong for the Boilers to handle.
Purdue was absolutely anemic against the Wildcats in the rushing game [3].
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Excluding Terry Wright, who had only a single carry, none of
Purdue’s rushers had above the average the Wildcats have allowed this season,
let alone the FBS average. Taking away Purdue’s offensive strength made the
life of the Wildcat defense much easier, allowing them to focus on a passing
attack that was the Boilermakers only hope of moving the ball.
Was Mike Leach
Secretly Calling the Plays?
The inability of the Purdue rushing attack to move the ball
meant that the only hope of the Boilermaker offense was Obi Wan Kenobi the
arm of Elijah Sindelar, who was making his first full time start of his career.
The Boilermakers threw the ball on an astronomical 76.25% of plays, dwarfing
the season average of 56.09% and eclipsing the season average of even the most
pass happy team this year, Mike Leach’s Washington State, who have passed on “only”
72.78% of plays. While I have been unsure of Sindelar so far this year, he
actually performed relatively well given the workload this week [1,2,3].
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The yards per dropback are below the season average for the
Boilers (5.82 yards per dropback), but were relatively close to the yards per
play, 5.58 yards per play, which is impressive given the entire offense was the
passing game. Sindelar’s accuracy over the year has improved, with a 61.67%
completion percentage far above his sub-50% performances early in the year. The
late interception was on a desperate play into double coverage, but it was at a
desperate point in the game with Purdue down by ten with less than a minute
left. Sindelar’s performance was not enough to win the game, but it wasn’t bad
either. In a game where the Boilers can utilize the rushing attack, Sindelar
has what it takes to win [1,2,3].
Our Defense Has Claws
Too
On the other side of the field, Northwestern’s rushing
attack, who have averaged a mediocre 4.81 yards per carry (FBS average: 5.10
yards per rush), faced the challenge of Purdue’s rush defense, who have been
allowing 4.20 yards per rush (FBS average: 4.96 yards per rush). The
Boilermaker defense handled the Wildcats with ease, allowing an incredible 2.81
yards per rush [1,2,3].
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| Figure 3, Northwestern Individual Rushing Statistics [1,2] |
Justin Jackson, who had been a solid part of the Wildcat
offense all season, taking 59.54% of the carries with 4.10 yards per rush, was
held to below half that. Quarterback Clayton Thorson, who has averaged 3.96
yards per rush and 5.10 rushes per game, was contained. It was yet another good
outing for the Boilermaker rush defense [1,2,4].
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| Figure 4, Northwestern Individual Passing Statistics [1,2] |
Much like the Boilers, the Wildcats relied on their passing
attack on Saturday, passing on 58.97% of plays compared to a season average of 56.09%.
The ‘Cats had a marginally better performance than the Boilers, with 6.19 yards
per dropback, compared to a season average of 5.87 yards per dropback and an
FBS average of 6.51 yards per dropback. Against the weak spot of the
Boilermaker defense, with an average of 6.54 yards allowed per dropback, the ‘Cats
did enough to swing the balance [1,2,3].
B-Word Update
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| Figure 5, Purdue Win Distribution [5] |
It’s hard to know where you should sit at family dinners
over the holidays, but Southwest will let you chose your own seat every flight.
Our Corn Is Better
Than Your Corn!
It’s time to play Purdue’s archrival according to Jim
Delaney, the Iowa Hawkeyes! Yes, it’s an Iowa team that embarrassed Ohio State
55-24, knocking the Buckeyes out of Playoff contention. But it’s also an Iowa
team that has among the worst offense statistics in the country, which make the
beatdown of the Buckeyes and their 44-41 win against Big 12 contender Iowa
State look confounding [6].
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| Figure 6, Iowa Team Statistics [3,6] |
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| Figure 7, Purdue Team Statistics [3,5] |
Iowa is really bad at offense, no matter how you measure it.
In S&P+ (based on how well teams pick up needed yardage on each down), the
Hawkeyes are 108th in offense. In terms of yards per play, the
Hawkeyes have averaged 5.16 yards per play, compared to an FBS average of 5.77
yards per play. They are an awful team rushing the ball, averaging 4.16 yards
per rush (FBS average: 5.10 yards per rush) and ranking 116th in FBS.
They are average passing team, ranking 72nd in FBS with an average
of 6.27 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.50 yards per dropback). However, Kirk
Ferentz’s conservative offensive philosophy has held the Hawkeye’s back; despite
their efficient passing numbers, they have only passed on 47.05% of plays. Against
the solid Purdue rushing defense, which has only allowed 4.20 yards per rush
(FBS average: 4.96 yards per rush), Ferentz’s rushing-dominated offense will
likely sputter, assuming Ferentz continues to stubbornly refuse to take
advantage of his decent passing attack. Like I said, I don’t understand how
Ohio State lost [3,6].
Where the Boilermakers will face a challenge is on the
offense side of the ball, where Purdue’s decent rushing attack will face a
stingy rushing defense allowing 4.20 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10 yards
per rush). This may force the Boilers to again rely on the passing attack. On
the bright side, Iowa has struggled to defend the pass, allowing 6.78 yards per
dropback (FBS average: 6.30 yards per dropback). An inability to rush the passer,
with a only 4.89% of dropbacks ending in a sack (FBS average: 6.27%) has been a
big part of those struggles. Sindelar and company will likely have an
opportunity to move the ball, giving the Boilers a chance [6].
Yes, this game is in Kinnick City where the laws of physics
cease to apply and Iowa the hopes and dreams of opponents. S&P+ only
narrowly favors the Hawkeyes in Iowa City, with a projected score of 23.6-23.9.
On a neutral field, the Boilers would be favored by 2.2 points. Purdue should
have some chances to take down the Hawkeyes with our (brace yourselves for this
weird phrase) offensive advantage. Since Purdue would have to win out to finish
6-6 and be solidly bowl eligible, this is a critical game for the Boilers, and
a chance to make a statement against a team that somehow pummeled Ohio State
and made the rationality of the universe be questioned [5,7].
Boiler Up!
References:
[1] http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400935406
[2] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935406#gp-playbyplay-4009354061
[3] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[4] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-northwestern-advanced-statistical-profile
[5] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[6] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-iowa-advanced-statistical-profile
[7] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
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