Losing Haas Would Be A Big Loss

Isaac Haas, after fracturing his elbow in a first round win over Cal State Fullerton, could miss the remainder of the NCAA tournament (although practiced today with a brace, so all hope is not lost). Haas’s dominance in the paint has been a critical part of the Boilermaker offense all season, so missing him could be devastating for the Boiler’s chances of reaching a Final Four. But how devastating [1]?

Per sports-reference, Haas’s Box Plus Mins (i.e., contribution over an average player to points over 100 possessions) is 3.9 on offense, 2.8 on defense, and 6.6 overall (sports-reference’s rounding at one decimal place produces an error that means defensive and offensive numbers do not add to exactly the overall). Combining that with KenPom’s team efficiencies per 100 possessions, one can estimate what the impact of Haas’s contributions being lost would mean. The loss of Haas would dramatically impact the Boilermaker team, dropping the team from a +26.90 rating on KenPom (i.e. expected points margin over a “average” team) to a +20.30 margin, with a drop from 5^th in the nation to 18^th in the nation (between Auburn and Houston) [2,3].

Figure 1: Impact of Losing Isaac Haas on Purdue’s Team Statistics [2,3]

In comparison to the rest of the teams remaining in the East Region of this year’s tournament, how big of a setback is that? Quite a large one, actually. With Haas, Purdue is a favorite over all remaining teams in the region except Villanova, against whom Purdue would be a 4.8 point underdog. And the closest non-Villanova team would be West Virginia, with the Mountaineers a 4.64 point underdog. Without Haas, Purdue is only favored against their second round opponent, Butler, by 1.67 points, as well as possibly later opponents Florida by 1.17 points and Marshall by 13.45 points. Villanova would become a 11.4 point favorite [2,3,4].

Figure 2: Impact of Losing Haas on Possible Regional Opponents [2,3,4]

If Haas, even at a 50% level, could return, Purdue would be favored against all opponents save Villanova. The pre-tournament expectation of most fans, an Elite Eight appearance, would still be in reach, although an elusive Final Four will still be a long shot, with having “half-a-Haas” (i.e., a 3.4 point margin improvement) meaning the Wildcats would be an 8 point favorite. But on the bright side, Purdue won't be screwed by a torn ACL this time

Boiler Up!

References

[1] https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/isaac-haas-injury-update-purdue-center-practices-with-brace-after-being-ruled-out/

[2] https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/isaac-haas-1.html

[3] https://kenpom.com/

[4] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo