I could say something emotional about the win, OR I could hope we all have our own memories that may or may not include a realization of how low our TV room ceilings are.
a Bad Defense and The Great Offense
Going into Saturday's game, I was pretty confident the Boilers - a pretty darn solid offense - would have success scoring against a struggling Buckeye defense. That is exactly what happened. These are numbers that should be left to stand on their own because HOLY MACKEREL PURDUE DID THAT TO OHIO STATE.
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| Figure 1: Purdue Individual Rushing Statistics [1,2] |
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| Figure 2: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics [1,2] |
Only thing to note is that Purdue's rushing came mainly from some explosive runs from Knox rather than a consistent set of runs from all the backs. This isn't exactly what you want to see for success through a season (and a sign run blocking may need a bit of work), but you have to give D.J. some credit here.
an Inability to Score
The Buckeyes, at least through the air, should have had the firepower to keep up with the Boilers, averaging 8.50 yrds/dropback (FBS average: 6.55). For starters, through the air the Buckeyes were a bit off their usual pace [3]:
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| Figure 3: Ohio State Individual Passing Statistics [1,2] |
But a slightly below average attack from Ohio State doesn't stick out as much as play calling, in which Dwayne Haskins threw 73 passes with dropbacks accounting for 75.51% of the Buckeyes' plays (compared to 53.95% over the season). This came from an absolute failure by the Buckeyes to run the ball [3]:
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| Figure 4: Ohio State Individual Rushing Statistics [1,2] |
Remember, the FBS average is 5.12 yrds/rush. The Boilers kept the Buckeyes stuck in place on the ground, which prevented a Buckeye team that tried to run in the red zone from putting points on the board [3]:
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| Figure 5: Team Drive Statistics [2] |
Note, the Markus Bailey pick six counts for negative points towards the Ohio State total. Between that turnover and their shutting down of the Buckeye rushing attack, the Boilers kept the Buckeyes off the scoreboard - particularly considering neither team had a major field position advantage. Combined with their own ability to finish drives, this created the Boilermaker Blowout on Saturday.
B-word Update
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| Figure 6: Purdue Win Distribution [4] |
With both such a strong performance boosting the Boilers' S&P+ and getting an upset win, the predicted wins for the Boilers has moved in a more positive direction. If you had other holiday plans with Southwest Airlines, be thankful you can change flights for no fee.
This. Is. East Lansing!
In back to back weeks, the Boilers will find themselves taking on a Big Ten East opponent that has State in its name. The Spartans, however, are a mirror opposite of the offensive challenge the Buckeyes were:
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| Figure 7: Michigan State Team Statistics [3,5] |
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| Figure 8: Purdue Team Statistics [3,5] |
The Spartans have been an absolutely abysmal team in every offensive facet, which puts the pressure on their defense to keep them in games. Luckily for the Spartans they are much better on that side of the ball, with below average allowed rushing yards (4.21 yrds/rush; FBS average: 4.87), passing yards (6.10 yrds/dropback; FBS average 6.24), and yards per play (4.97 yrds/play; FBS average: 5.53). The one (relative) weakness of the Spartan defense is the Boilers' strength: the passing attack. The below average pass rush (6.10% sack rate; FBS average: 6.64%) will give Blough time to throw, which will likely allow the Boilers to move the ball. S&P+ favors the Boilers by 1.3 points on the road in East Lansing, with the game a virtual coin flip. Given how the matchup looks, I feel more confident than that [3,5].
Boiler Up!
References
[1] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2018-10-20-purdue.html
[2] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401013348
[3] https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div
[4] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#
[5] https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa2018
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