2017 Weekly Boiler Stat Summaries: Week 4, v. Michigan

Coming into this past weekend, I knew something special was happening around Purdue football. It was different in the way fans talked; it was different in the sellout of the student section. Driving into West Lafayette, it became clearer. The IM Fields and frats were nearly full of cars... at 11:00am for a 4:00pm kickoff. Walking into the stadium, I was amazed when a couple friends and I (they are current students, thus we were in the student section) were having trouble finding seats just before kickoff. Once we finally found spots, this was our view:

Figure 1: Are these people sure they're in the right stadium?

Despite the consensus that this game would not end it our favor (and it didn't), there was a newfound passion among Purdue faithful. With a lead at halftime, that passion doubled. Despite struggles in the second half, people remained in the stadium until the final seconds ticked down (and not just the Michigan fans). It's a new day for Purdue football.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled analysis of a not-quite spectacular day on the field.

Offensive Offense

Michigan's defense, coming into the game second in defensive S&P+ and allowing 5.03 yards per passing attempt, 2.3 yards per rush, and 3.4 yards per play, performed as advertised. They held the Boilers to 3.4 yards per passing play (I'm counting sacks as passes, which will cause these numbers to vary from the box score stats in which sacks are counted as rushes giving 5.3 yards/attempt), 4.6 yards per rushing attempt (with sacks as rushes it's 1.5 yards/carry), and 2.98 yards per play [1,2]. Even more disappointing was the scoring: the Boilermakers managed an anemic 1.43 points per drive in the 28-10 defeat [2].

Breaking down individual performances, there aren't many bright spots. Looking at rushes and receptions in Figure 2, no player could consistently rush efficiently.

Figure 2: Purdue Rushing and Receiving Statistics

The lack of Markell Jones and Tario Fuller due to knee and foot injuries, respectively, was definitely felt [3,4]. Brian Lankford-Johnson struggled as the primary back with an awful 2.4 yards per carry on 5 carries [1]. Blough's mobility meant he was tied as leading rusher (when excluding sacks) with Richie Worship, who had only two carries (4 and 14 yards) [2]. Blough also was used a receiver in a bit of trickery, giving him one reception for 24 yards. When able to get the ball, the receiving corps was not bad. The problem, as seen in Figure 3, was the failure of both quarterbacks to succeed.

Figure 3: Purdue Quarterbacks' Passing Performance [1,5]

Pressure was a significant factor: 40 yards were lost on 5 sacks. Blough, nagged by an shoulder injury suffered in August, re-injured his shoulder in the game. This was likely a contributing factor to his limited time in the game as well as his struggling play, where he averaged less than a yard per drop back and was under 39% overall completion [6]. Sindelar played better, but not great either, and continued his season-long struggles with accuracy. Michigan's defense tested Purdue's offense, and the Boilers failed to rise to the challenge.

Decent Defense

The Wolverines' offense, unlike their defense, did not enter the game a well regarded unit: 49th in the nation in S&P+, expected to score 32 points against an "average" defense.  The Boilers held Michigan to 28 points, slightly better than what the average team would have done. Purdue also held the Wolverines to fewer yards per play and rushing yards per attempt compared to Michigan's season averages.

Figure 4: Michigan's Offensive Performance v. Purdue and Over the Season [1,7]

The Boilers held the Wolverines' offense to even less than their typical mediocrity. Unfortunately, the Michigan defense held the Boilermaker offense to a miserable performance.

Half And Half Football (again)

During Hazell's tenure, Purdue managed to play some very, very strong first halves only to struggle in the last thirty minutes and lose big at the end of the day. Brohm's squad has, so far, mostly avoided that kind of game. I say mostly because of both the 7-point second half offensive performance at Mizzou (even though that half was a shut-out on defense) and what transpired this week at Ross-Ade:

Figure 5: Per Drive Offensive Performance by Half for Both Teams [2]

In the first half, the Boilers out-played Michigan, even though their offensive performance wasn't great, leading to a 10-7 lead going into halftime. After the break the Wolverines came out with a vengeance, holding the Boilers to a much worse performance in every statistical category - including shutting out Purdue. Michigan also had significantly more success on offense, including averaging a field goal per possession and almost tripling their yards per play. Hopefully this is a merely a fluke compared to where the coaching staff could move the Boilers this year.

B-Word Update

Figure 6: Purdue Win Distribution [8]

Unless everything is refundable, don't think about booking bowl travel just yet...

Bye Week

This weekend, the Boilermaker student-athletes will take on their most formidable opponent yet: Where Else.
[Editor's note: If that statement confuses you, there is a bar in West Lafayette called Where Else. It has the reputation on campus of being the place athletes go to drink and end the night getting arrested.]

In all seriousness, Purdue enters their bye week in need of some rest with injuries to key running backs (Fuller and Jones) and the starting quarterback (Blough). The Boilers don't stand in a terrible position on the season: 2-2, 0-1 in conference play (against a CFP contender), and having performed decently in S&P+: 72nd overall, 64th in offense, and 73rd on defense [9]. Note: these rankings include a significant portion of preseason projections in their calculations and so hold the Boilers back in comparison to their current play. Compared to the end of last season (105th overall, 94th on offense, 99th on defense), this is a mighty step forward in a short time.

Next week's post will be a little different in format, given the lack of game to summarize. I will do a bit of a "season so far" review as well as the Minnesota preview.

For those of you who have read the posts this season and gave feedback this past week, thank you for your support. And to Carly who has graciously offered to proof read all of these, thank you.

Boiler Up!

References:
[1] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2017-09-23-purdue.html
[2] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935364
[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3918001/tario-fuller
[4] http://www.jconline.com/story/sports/college/purdue/football/2017/09/04/purdue-running-back-markell-jones-sidelined-knee-injury/630443001/
[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400935364
[6] http://www.heraldbulletin.com/sports/purdue-notebook-blough-injures-shoulder-in-loss-to-michigan/article_29724edc-a0cd-11e7-973a-7fdc372fc23d.html
[7] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/michigan/2017.html
[8] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[9] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
[10] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa2016