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2018 Weekly Boiler Stat Summaries: Week 6, Bye Week

No one got arrested at Where Else. Good. Time for the Illinois preview...

B-Word Update

But first, with updated S&P+ ratings, comes updated game probabilities, and of course, a pleasant reminder of the fact Southwest airlines provides free checked bags to wherever your holiday will take you. Whether or not that includes Purdue football.

Figure 1: Purdue Win Distribution [1]
Santa Lovie is Coaching Right Now

 For those of you who have not seen the beard Lovie Smith is currently gracing Champaign with, well, check it out in all of its Claus-like greatness: https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/twitter_enraptured_by_lovie_smiths_magnificent_beard/s1_12680_27323777

The Illini are 3-2, with wins over Kent State, Western Illinois, and Rutgers. That would be the best start the former Bears and Bucs coach has had at Illinois, after going 1-4 in 2016 and 2-3 (the only two wins that year) in 2017. The Illini have had success running the ball, with 6.35 yards/rush (FBS average: 5.17 yards/rush). Leading the Illini on the ground is RB Reggie Corbin, with 7.9 yards/rush on 59 rushes. He only had 28.2% of UI's carries; RB Mike Epstein also impressed with 6.8 yards/rush on 57 carries. QB AJ Bush, Jr. has been a major threat to run, with 7.7 yards/rush on 38 carries [2,3,4,5].

Figure 2: Illinois Team Statistics [2,5]
Figure 3: Purdue Team Statistics [1,2]

His impact in the air has been less impressive. His 5.1 yards/dropback are way below the FBS average of 6.67, and his mediocre 58.3% completion percentage (FBS average: 60.8%). With the Purdue rushing defense struggling over the course of the season, and in particular having trouble stopping Adrian Martinez two weeks ago, Purdue will have to force the Illini to pass to have success defensively.

Luckily, the hot Boilermaker offense has a great opportunity to move the ball against a reeling Illini defense, which has struggled both on the ground and in the air to stop. Illinois has allowed 5.54 yards/rush (FBS average: 4.89 yards/rush) and 7.18 yards/rush (FBS average: 6.28 yards/rush). Those struggles have come from the defensive line, managing a sack on only 3.57% of dropbacks (FBS average: 6.54%). With a Boilermaker offensive line that has been able to keep David Blough upright, with a sack rate of 4.88% (FBS average: 4.72%), this could be a fertile day for the Boilermaker offense [2].

S&P+ gives the Boilers a 71% chance of winning, with a projected scoring margin of 9.5. For the Boilers to make a bowl game, picking up a win in a game like this is crucial. In deed, if the Boilers win against Illinois, their odds of making the post season increases from 33.93% to 41.75%. This is a big game for this season, not mention a chance to keep the Cannon [1].

Boiler Up!

References:
[1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#
[2] https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Illinois_Fighting_Illini_football_team
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Illinois_Fighting_Illini_football_team
[5] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#

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