It’s official! Purdue is in a bowl game! On 27 December at 8:30pm
EST on Fox the Boilers will take on the Wildcats of Arizona in the Foster Farms
Bowl. This preview will include both information about the destination and
sponsor in addition to the football preview. If you just want football talk,
skip to the heading “Didn’t We Already Beat Arizona This Season?”
Where Is This Game?
The Foster Farms Bowl is held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa
Clara, CA, where the San Francisco 49ers “play football”. Santa Clara is just
outside San Jose, CA, and is known for being where Levi’s Stadium is and being
home to the Santa Clara Vanguard.
Look, I’m not from California, so the only things I know
about this town are related to football and drum corps. Google is from California, and so provided
these lovely maps to help place Santa Clara.
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For those attending the game, you have the option of three
airports: San Jose’s Norman Y. Mineta International Airport (SJC), San
Francisco International Airport (SFO), and Oakland International Airport (OAK).
The unofficial airline of this blog, Southwest Airlines, flies into all three,
with Oakland being the least expensive for flights, but furthest away. (Due to
the holidays, Southwest’s fares may exceed traditional airlines with the one way
fare on the 26th starting at $588.) Searching on Kayak, SFO and SJC
are relatively comparable in price with flights from IND hovering over $600. Not
knowing how fricking expensive an Uber is across the Bay Area, SJC may be the
best choice if you can find a reasonable fare. Tickets purchased directly from
the bowl range from $20 to $250 [2,3,4,5].
Depending on how much time you would be spending in the San
Francisco Bay area, you can enjoy the beautiful but heavily inflated real
estate market of San Francisco, the barely less inflated real estate market of
Oakland, the really beautiful bridge between them, a prison on an island
between them, and both Napa and Sonoma Valley’s incredible vineyards. Because
if you are going to watch a Purdue football game, you might as well enjoy an
incredible Cabernet Sauvignon while doing so. Which, I mean, you can do if you
are watching it from the comfort of a couch somewhere in the Midwest like me,
but I wouldn’t pass up an opportunity to go to Napa if I had it.
Carly, originally from Orange County, would like to remind the
great people of this planet that the Bay Area is nowhere near Los Angeles and
she has not been there because it would be a long drive in terrible traffic.
[Editor’s Note: You would not believe how many people are
shocked that I’ve never been there when I tell them that I lived in Southern California
for a large portion of my life…]
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| Figure 2: The San Francisco Bay Area, Closer to Reno Than LA [1] |
What The Heck Is A
Foster Farm?
It’s a poultry company that mainly operates on the West
Coast, and advertises its products as “fresh and naturally locally grown,” as
it operates on the West Coast. One might compare them to Tyson or Perdue [6].
And what will playing in this game net the players in the
bowl swag department? Last year, players received a pick of items from a gift
suite, a Fossil watch, and a Timbuk2 backpack. I have no idea if said gift
suite included some free chicken, but one can only hope [7].
Didn’t We Already Beat
Arizona This Season?
Yes, but that was in basketball. This time it’s their football
team, led by former West Virginia and Michigan head coach, and god of alliteration,
Rich Rodriguez (married to Rita, with children Raquel and Rhett). Rodriguez is
among the most influential coaches in college football history, inventing the
spread option while coaching at then NAIA Glenville State and continuing to improve
upon it as offensive coordinate at Tulane and Clemson before coaching at his
alma mater WVU. It’s that spread option that the Boilers will attempt to defend
in Santa Clara. The Wildcats have run on 66.15% of plays this season (FBS
average: 47.27%), the 11th highest in FBS. They don’t just run a lot
– they run exceptionally well; they rank 2nd in FBS in yards per
rush at 7.21 (FBS average: 5.10). Running this much and this effectively has
meant they have averaged 7.07 yards per play, compared to the FBS average of
5.78 and ranking 8th in FBS. S&P+ also likes the Wildcats,
placing them 9th in offensive S&P+ [8,9,10].
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| Figure 3: Arizona Individual Rushing Statistics [10] |
As expected in the spread option, quarterbacks are featured
heavily as rushers with Khalil Tate, Brandon Dawkins, and Rhett Rodriguez combining
for 35.2% of all carries. Khalil Tate’s 11.43 yards per rush is an incredible
amount for the workload he has had; what’s more incredible is even when sacks
are counted as rushes (i.e. the NCAA official statistics), Tate is first in the
nation with 10.17 yards per carry – 1.29 yards per carry ahead of runner-up RB
Darrell Henderson of Memphis (8.88 yards per carry), and 1.85 yards per carry
ahead of third ranked and Heisman finalist Bryce Love of Stanford (8.32 yards
per carry). The running backs (and wide receivers) on the roster are no slouches
either; excluding the quarterbacks, the Wildcats had 5.67 yards per rush which
would have ranked 19th in FBS if the quarterbacks didn’t run [9,10].
The Purdue rushing defense has been a solid unit, allowing
only 4.25 yards per rush compared to an FBS average of 4.98 yards per rush and
ranking 25th in FBS. This is going to be a strength-versus-strength
matchup in Santa Clara. My fellow Boilers should take some solace in the fact
that the only rushing attack more potent than Arizona’s has been tested against
the Boilers… and the Louisville Cardinals didn’t deliver. Compared to their
season average of 7.31 yards per rush, the Cardinals were held to only 4.63
yards per rush in Lucas Oil Stadium. The 2016 Heisman winner and 2017 Heisman
finalist Lamar Jackson was contained to an (FBS) average 5.10 yards per rush,
compared to his season average of 8.44 yards per rush. The Boilermaker defense
certainly has the ability to take away the backbone of the Wildcat offense [9,11,12].
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| Figure 4: Arizona Individual Passing Statistics [10,13,14,15,16] |
Unfortunately for the Boilermaker defense, the Wildcats are
pretty good at passing the ball as well. Khalil Tate and Brandon Dawkins split
time starting time, with the junior Dawkins getting the nod early over the sophomore
Tate. Tate took more snaps as the season progressed, but was sidelined with
injury partway through their season ending contest against Arizona State. Tate
should be back against the Boilers, which should scare the defense because he
is not just an remarkable rusher but also a potent passer. He has averaged 7.56
yards per dropback, compared to the FBS average of 6.55 yards per dropback.
Despite Dawkins struggling at times, the team average remains at 6.80 yards per
dropback – ranking 46th in FBS. Part of this has been great pass
protection; aided no doubt by defenses focusing on the rush, the Wildcats have
only allowed a sack on 5.28% of dropbacks (FBS average 6.12%), which ranks 8th
in FBS. Against a Purdue defense that has been average defending the pass (6.11
yards per dropback, compared to an FBS average of 6.35 yards per dropback and
ranking 54th), this may be a chance for the Wildcats to gain yards.
The Boilermaker pass rush, with a sack rate of 5.73% (FBS average: 6.30%), may
find itself not able to get to the quarterback [9,17].
How Are They Only 7-5
With That Offense?
Because their defense is not very good. It’s a Hanukah
miracle that the Boilermaker offense, which hasn’t been the strength of this
team, will face a defense that has allowed 6.08 yards per rush (FBS average: 4.97),
6.47 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.36), and 6.30 yards per play (FBS
average: 5.63). S&P+ doesn’t like the Wildcats either, with a defensive
S&P+ ranking of 114th [9,10].
The only bright spot for Arizona has been a relatively
effective pass rush. The Wildcats are getting a sack on 7.54% of dropbacks,
compared to an FBS average of 6.31% and ranking 38th in the nation.
That has been a big part of what has allowed their passing defense to be below
average rather than godawful like their rushing defense. It will be interesting
to see if that pass rush is actually hitting the field in Santa Clara: defensive
linemen Justin Belknap (2.5 sacks) and Luca Bruno (1.5 sacks) are listed as questionable
for the 27th [9,10,17].
The Boilers will have a favorable matchup in their rushing
attack, which has been decent this year with 5.31 yards per rush (FBS average:
5.10), and should be able to run past the horrible Arizona rushing defense.
That should mean that even though the matchup isn’t as great in the passing
attack, with the Boilers far below average with 5.74 yards per dropback (FBS
average: 6.55), the Boilermaker offensive should be able to move the ball [9].
So, Who You Got?
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| Figure 5: Arizona Team Statistics [9,10] |
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| Figure 6: Purdue Team Statistics [9,18] |
S&P+ has Purdue a slim favorite, with a projected score
of 31.1-29.5, and a 54% chance of victory. I’m a bit more bullish than Bill
Connelly’s math I’ve been citing (so it’s not stealing). Purdue’s rushing
offense, which has been a rather effective unit, will be matched against one of
the weakest rushing defenses in the nation. The Purdue rush defense, which has
been able to defend everyone not named Jonathan Taylor (including Lamar Jackson),
should have the ability to slow the Arizona rushing offense enough to allow
Purdue’s offense to have a good chance at pulling out a victory. Worst case
scenario, you will watch Markell Jones and Khalil Tate engage in a track meet.
It should be fun [18].
Boiler Up!
References
[1] https://www.google.com/maps/place/Levi's+Stadium/@37.402317,-121.9711894,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x808fc9c827c5f0df:0x11455a372e1f7d18!8m2!3d37.402317!4d-121.9689954
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Jose_International_Airport
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_International_Airport
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakland_International_Airport
[5] http://www.fosterfarmsbowl.com/
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foster_Farms
[7] https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/12/17/13857064/bowl-game-gifts-2016
[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Rodriguez
[9] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[10] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-arizona-advanced-statistical-profile
[11] https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9221801/0902_Lou_-_Purd.0.jpeg
[12] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-louisville-advanced-statistical-profile
[13] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4039602/khalil-tate
[14] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3133993/brandon-dawkins
[15] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/480233/donavan-tate
[16] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4245679/rhett-rodriguez
[17] http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/
[18] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
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