2017 Bowl Game Preview: Foster Farms Bowl v. Arizona

It’s official! Purdue is in a bowl game! On 27 December at 8:30pm EST on Fox the Boilers will take on the Wildcats of Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. This preview will include both information about the destination and sponsor in addition to the football preview. If you just want football talk, skip to the heading “Didn’t We Already Beat Arizona This Season?”

Where Is This Game?

The Foster Farms Bowl is held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, where the San Francisco 49ers “play football”. Santa Clara is just outside San Jose, CA, and is known for being where Levi’s Stadium is and being home to the Santa Clara Vanguard.

Look, I’m not from California, so the only things I know about this town are related to football and drum corps. Google is from California, and so provided these lovely maps to help place Santa Clara.

Figure 1: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, and the San Francisco Bay Area [1]

For those attending the game, you have the option of three airports: San Jose’s Norman Y. Mineta International Airport (SJC), San Francisco International Airport (SFO), and Oakland International Airport (OAK). The unofficial airline of this blog, Southwest Airlines, flies into all three, with Oakland being the least expensive for flights, but furthest away. (Due to the holidays, Southwest’s fares may exceed traditional airlines with the one way fare on the 26^th starting at $588.) Searching on Kayak, SFO and SJC are relatively comparable in price with flights from IND hovering over $600. Not knowing how fricking expensive an Uber is across the Bay Area, SJC may be the best choice if you can find a reasonable fare. Tickets purchased directly from the bowl range from $20 to $250 [2,3,4,5].

Depending on how much time you would be spending in the San Francisco Bay area, you can enjoy the beautiful but heavily inflated real estate market of San Francisco, the barely less inflated real estate market of Oakland, the really beautiful bridge between them, a prison on an island between them, and both Napa and Sonoma Valley’s incredible vineyards. Because if you are going to watch a Purdue football game, you might as well enjoy an incredible Cabernet Sauvignon while doing so. Which, I mean, you can do if you are watching it from the comfort of a couch somewhere in the Midwest like me, but I wouldn’t pass up an opportunity to go to Napa if I had it.

Carly, originally from Orange County, would like to remind the great people of this planet that the Bay Area is nowhere near Los Angeles and she has not been there because it would be a long drive in terrible traffic.

[Editor’s Note: You would not believe how many people are shocked that I’ve never been there when I tell them that I lived in Southern California for a large portion of my life…]

Figure 2: The San Francisco Bay Area, Closer to Reno Than LA [1]

What The Heck Is A Foster Farm?

It’s a poultry company that mainly operates on the West Coast, and advertises its products as “fresh and naturally locally grown,” as it operates on the West Coast. One might compare them to Tyson or Perdue [6].

And what will playing in this game net the players in the bowl swag department? Last year, players received a pick of items from a gift suite, a Fossil watch, and a Timbuk2 backpack. I have no idea if said gift suite included some free chicken, but one can only hope [7].

Didn’t We Already Beat Arizona This Season?

Yes, but that was in basketball. This time it’s their football team, led by former West Virginia and Michigan head coach, and god of alliteration, Rich Rodriguez (married to Rita, with children Raquel and Rhett). Rodriguez is among the most influential coaches in college football history, inventing the spread option while coaching at then NAIA Glenville State and continuing to improve upon it as offensive coordinate at Tulane and Clemson before coaching at his alma mater WVU. It’s that spread option that the Boilers will attempt to defend in Santa Clara. The Wildcats have run on 66.15% of plays this season (FBS average: 47.27%), the 11^th highest in FBS. They don’t just run a lot – they run exceptionally well; they rank 2^nd in FBS in yards per rush at 7.21 (FBS average: 5.10). Running this much and this effectively has meant they have averaged 7.07 yards per play, compared to the FBS average of 5.78 and ranking 8^th in FBS. S&P+ also likes the Wildcats, placing them 9^th in offensive S&P+ [8,9,10].

Figure 3: Arizona Individual Rushing Statistics [10] 

As expected in the spread option, quarterbacks are featured heavily as rushers with Khalil Tate, Brandon Dawkins, and Rhett Rodriguez combining for 35.2% of all carries. Khalil Tate’s 11.43 yards per rush is an incredible amount for the workload he has had; what’s more incredible is even when sacks are counted as rushes (i.e. the NCAA official statistics), Tate is first in the nation with 10.17 yards per carry – 1.29 yards per carry ahead of runner-up RB Darrell Henderson of Memphis (8.88 yards per carry), and 1.85 yards per carry ahead of third ranked and Heisman finalist Bryce Love of Stanford (8.32 yards per carry). The running backs (and wide receivers) on the roster are no slouches either; excluding the quarterbacks, the Wildcats had 5.67 yards per rush which would have ranked 19^th in FBS if the quarterbacks didn’t run [9,10].

The Purdue rushing defense has been a solid unit, allowing only 4.25 yards per rush compared to an FBS average of 4.98 yards per rush and ranking 25^th in FBS. This is going to be a strength-versus-strength matchup in Santa Clara. My fellow Boilers should take some solace in the fact that the only rushing attack more potent than Arizona’s has been tested against the Boilers… and the Louisville Cardinals didn’t deliver. Compared to their season average of 7.31 yards per rush, the Cardinals were held to only 4.63 yards per rush in Lucas Oil Stadium. The 2016 Heisman winner and 2017 Heisman finalist Lamar Jackson was contained to an (FBS) average 5.10 yards per rush, compared to his season average of 8.44 yards per rush. The Boilermaker defense certainly has the ability to take away the backbone of the Wildcat offense [9,11,12].   

Figure 4: Arizona Individual Passing Statistics [10,13,14,15,16]

Unfortunately for the Boilermaker defense, the Wildcats are pretty good at passing the ball as well. Khalil Tate and Brandon Dawkins split time starting time, with the junior Dawkins getting the nod early over the sophomore Tate. Tate took more snaps as the season progressed, but was sidelined with injury partway through their season ending contest against Arizona State. Tate should be back against the Boilers, which should scare the defense because he is not just an remarkable rusher but also a potent passer. He has averaged 7.56 yards per dropback, compared to the FBS average of 6.55 yards per dropback. Despite Dawkins struggling at times, the team average remains at 6.80 yards per dropback – ranking 46^th in FBS. Part of this has been great pass protection; aided no doubt by defenses focusing on the rush, the Wildcats have only allowed a sack on 5.28% of dropbacks (FBS average 6.12%), which ranks 8^th in FBS. Against a Purdue defense that has been average defending the pass (6.11 yards per dropback, compared to an FBS average of 6.35 yards per dropback and ranking 54^th), this may be a chance for the Wildcats to gain yards. The Boilermaker pass rush, with a sack rate of 5.73% (FBS average: 6.30%), may find itself not able to get to the quarterback [9,17].

How Are They Only 7-5 With That Offense?

Because their defense is not very good. It’s a Hanukah miracle that the Boilermaker offense, which hasn’t been the strength of this team, will face a defense that has allowed 6.08 yards per rush (FBS average: 4.97), 6.47 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.36), and 6.30 yards per play (FBS average: 5.63). S&P+ doesn’t like the Wildcats either, with a defensive S&P+ ranking of 114^th [9,10].

The only bright spot for Arizona has been a relatively effective pass rush. The Wildcats are getting a sack on 7.54% of dropbacks, compared to an FBS average of 6.31% and ranking 38^th in the nation. That has been a big part of what has allowed their passing defense to be below average rather than godawful like their rushing defense. It will be interesting to see if that pass rush is actually hitting the field in Santa Clara: defensive linemen Justin Belknap (2.5 sacks) and Luca Bruno (1.5 sacks) are listed as questionable for the 27^th [9,10,17].

The Boilers will have a favorable matchup in their rushing attack, which has been decent this year with 5.31 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10), and should be able to run past the horrible Arizona rushing defense. That should mean that even though the matchup isn’t as great in the passing attack, with the Boilers far below average with 5.74 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.55), the Boilermaker offensive should be able to move the ball [9].

So, Who You Got?

Figure 5: Arizona Team Statistics [9,10]

Figure 6: Purdue Team Statistics [9,18] 

S&P+ has Purdue a slim favorite, with a projected score of 31.1-29.5, and a 54% chance of victory. I’m a bit more bullish than Bill Connelly’s math I’ve been citing (so it’s not stealing). Purdue’s rushing offense, which has been a rather effective unit, will be matched against one of the weakest rushing defenses in the nation. The Purdue rush defense, which has been able to defend everyone not named Jonathan Taylor (including Lamar Jackson), should have the ability to slow the Arizona rushing offense enough to allow Purdue’s offense to have a good chance at pulling out a victory. Worst case scenario, you will watch Markell Jones and Khalil Tate engage in a track meet. It should be fun [18].

Boiler Up!

References

[1] https://www.google.com/maps/place/Levi's+Stadium/@37.402317,-121.9711894,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x808fc9c827c5f0df:0x11455a372e1f7d18!8m2!3d37.402317!4d-121.9689954

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Jose_International_Airport

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_International_Airport

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakland_International_Airport

[5] http://www.fosterfarmsbowl.com/

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foster_Farms

[7] https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/12/17/13857064/bowl-game-gifts-2016

[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Rodriguez

[9] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs

[10] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-arizona-advanced-statistical-profile

[11] https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9221801/0902_Lou_-_Purd.0.jpeg

[12] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-louisville-advanced-statistical-profile

[13] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4039602/khalil-tate

[14] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3133993/brandon-dawkins

[15] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/480233/donavan-tate

[16] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4245679/rhett-rodriguez

[17] http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/

[18] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile