This is the first time the Bucket has been home since I was a junior at Purdue – the first year of Darrell Hazell’s tenure in West Lafayette. I am not nearly a good enough writer to capture my happiness in this moment. Purdue spent my entire post-college life (and half of college) being a joke nationally with very little to be proud of on Saturday afternoons in the fall. In just one year the narrative has changed. The Boilers won five games against FBS competition (a winning percentage of 11.36%) and three conference games (9.09%) during the 48-game Hazell era; in a single season, Brohm has won six FBS games, including four in conference, for a 50.00% winning percentage overall and 44.44% in conference. And with 6.8 second order wins (wins expected based on per play success rate) per S&P+, one may say that Purdue underachieved in the win column compared to how the Boilers played. Jeff Brohm has done something incredible this year, and capped it off with a win against IU – finally bringing the Bucket home. Let’s hit the numbers [1].
Raiders of the IU Defense
In last week’s post, I discussed how Purdue’s running attack would need to step up in order to move the ball against an IU team that has been very good at defending the pass, allowing only 5.28 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.34). Since IU has also been solid defending the rush (4.64 yards per rush compared to an FBS average of 4.97), this seemed easier said than done [2].
Apparently Markell Jones read that, said “hold my Gatorade”, and absolutely whipped the IU defense.
Jones had 31 carries for 217 yards, with 7.00 yards per carry. This accounted for 47.9% of the Boilers’ offensive yards on the day, compared to his usual 10.2% during the rest of the season. Injury, of course, limited Jones’s snaps, but in games in which he had any rushes he only averaged 11.5 carries. The Professional Flight major, unlike the fictional archeologist with whom he shares a surname, both flew and landed the Boilermaker offense on Saturday. D.J. Knox also had a productive day with 9.60 yards per carry on 5 carries. The team’s 6.90 yards per carry was an improvement from the season average for the Boilers of 5.31 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10) and was a major reason why the Boilers ran on 43.66% of plays, compared to a season average of 55.38%. In fact, 6.90 yards per rush would rank 43rd in passing yards per play over a season, and 3rd in rushing yards per play over the season [2,3,4,5,6].
Temple of Pass Protection
With the Purdue offense running the ball efficiently, the IU defensive line found themselves off their typical game in the pass rush. Compared to a season average of a sack on 9.78% of dropbacks (FBS average: 6.30%), IU managed only a single sack for a loss of only one yard during Elijah Sindelar’s 30 dropbacks (sack rate: 3.33%). This allowed the Boilers (Joe Schopper attempted one pass for 22 yards in addition to Elijah Sindelar’s 30 dropbacks) to average 5.81 yards per dropback, compared to the season average of 5.74 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.53) and IU’s season average allowed of 5.28 yards per dropback [2,3,4].
In the receiving game, the Meaty French Mitts of Anthony Mahoungou suffered a small sample size of four targets with two catches (50% catch rate), but excelled in efficiency with 88 yards on those four targets (22 yards per target) – including one beautiful 49 yard touchdown catch. [3,4].
Overall you have to be pleased by a pretty good day on offense, yielding 2.07 points per drive and 6.44 yards per play (FBS average: 5.77) against an IU defense has allowed only 4.93 yards per play (FBS average: 5.62) on the season [2,3,4].
Last Coverage
The IU offense has been bad all year, with only 4.99 yards per play (FBS average: 5.77), 5.61 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.53), and 4.22 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10). The Purdue offense did not let them be much more than their sorry, sorry selves [2].
IU appears to have been capable of busting through the stout Purdue rushing defense (4.25 yards per rush, compared to an FBS average of 4.97) until one notices that 64 of the H-words’ yards came from a single Ricky Brookins run. Excluding that, IU moved much like the team bus did on State Route 37 with 85 yards on 28 carries for 3.04 yards per rush. Play calling fell in line with this performance; IU had 92 plays, 63 of which were passes (67.42%) compared to a season average of 55.83%. While not quite Mike Leach levels (Wazzou has averaged 73.80% passes this year), it exceeds the season average of most pass-heavy offenses not coached by a pirate. New Mexico State would be third (66.67% passes). The tremendous workload by Purdue’s defense (IU ran 56.44% of plays in the game) makes their good performance look much greater. IU was not able to do much in the air, with only 5.52 yards per dropback. With a Purdue pass rush that was only mediocre (4.76% of dropbacks resulted in sacks, compared to an FBS average of 6.23% and an IU allowed average of 5.46%), this comes down to a mix of good coverage and Lagow choosing his passes poorly. These offensive struggles for IU, as well as a slight field position advantage for the Boilers (average starting field position for Purdue was their own 31.09 yard line compared to IU starting at their own 27.75 yard line) helped push the Boilers over the top and bring the Bucket home [2,3,4].
What’s Next
Purdue, of course, is going to a bowl game. And not losing its coach to Tennessee. Since we won’t have a bowl selection and opponent until Sunday, there will be no preview this week of that opponent. That will be appearing next week. The coming weeks will likely see some non-Purdue content, including more fun with numbers and holidays and a Fiction v. Engineering. There may be some Purdue women’s basketball content coming in the future, because GABS.
I thank everyone who has kept reading this column and been supportive of this effort. I especially thank my wife Carly, who has volunteered to edit my often rambling writing and turn it into something half respectable. And laugh at my bad jokes (or at me for making them), including the Indiana Jones jokes I forced into every nook and cranny of this week’s post.
For those of you who believe that my writing is more than half than respectable, I’d like to direct you to the button on the top of the page that says “Buy Me a Coffee.” That will direct you to my Kofi page where you can provide me a small tip (say, about the price of an overpriced beverage at a national coffeehouse chain) as a token of appreciation of my writing, help make sure my brain has enough caffeine to function.
Boiler Up!
References
[1] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[2] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400935422
[4] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935422
[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/2509
[6] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/3791143/markell-jones
Raiders of the IU Defense
In last week’s post, I discussed how Purdue’s running attack would need to step up in order to move the ball against an IU team that has been very good at defending the pass, allowing only 5.28 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.34). Since IU has also been solid defending the rush (4.64 yards per rush compared to an FBS average of 4.97), this seemed easier said than done [2].
Apparently Markell Jones read that, said “hold my Gatorade”, and absolutely whipped the IU defense.
 |
| Figure 1: Purdue Individual Rushing Performance [3,4] |
Jones had 31 carries for 217 yards, with 7.00 yards per carry. This accounted for 47.9% of the Boilers’ offensive yards on the day, compared to his usual 10.2% during the rest of the season. Injury, of course, limited Jones’s snaps, but in games in which he had any rushes he only averaged 11.5 carries. The Professional Flight major, unlike the fictional archeologist with whom he shares a surname, both flew and landed the Boilermaker offense on Saturday. D.J. Knox also had a productive day with 9.60 yards per carry on 5 carries. The team’s 6.90 yards per carry was an improvement from the season average for the Boilers of 5.31 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10) and was a major reason why the Boilers ran on 43.66% of plays, compared to a season average of 55.38%. In fact, 6.90 yards per rush would rank 43rd in passing yards per play over a season, and 3rd in rushing yards per play over the season [2,3,4,5,6].
Temple of Pass Protection
With the Purdue offense running the ball efficiently, the IU defensive line found themselves off their typical game in the pass rush. Compared to a season average of a sack on 9.78% of dropbacks (FBS average: 6.30%), IU managed only a single sack for a loss of only one yard during Elijah Sindelar’s 30 dropbacks (sack rate: 3.33%). This allowed the Boilers (Joe Schopper attempted one pass for 22 yards in addition to Elijah Sindelar’s 30 dropbacks) to average 5.81 yards per dropback, compared to the season average of 5.74 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.53) and IU’s season average allowed of 5.28 yards per dropback [2,3,4].
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| Figure 2: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics [3,4] |
In the receiving game, the Meaty French Mitts of Anthony Mahoungou suffered a small sample size of four targets with two catches (50% catch rate), but excelled in efficiency with 88 yards on those four targets (22 yards per target) – including one beautiful 49 yard touchdown catch. [3,4].
Overall you have to be pleased by a pretty good day on offense, yielding 2.07 points per drive and 6.44 yards per play (FBS average: 5.77) against an IU defense has allowed only 4.93 yards per play (FBS average: 5.62) on the season [2,3,4].
Last Coverage
The IU offense has been bad all year, with only 4.99 yards per play (FBS average: 5.77), 5.61 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.53), and 4.22 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.10). The Purdue offense did not let them be much more than their sorry, sorry selves [2].
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| Figure 3: Indiana Individual Passing Statistics [3,4] |
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| Figure 4: Indiana Individual Rushing Statistics [3,4] |
IU appears to have been capable of busting through the stout Purdue rushing defense (4.25 yards per rush, compared to an FBS average of 4.97) until one notices that 64 of the H-words’ yards came from a single Ricky Brookins run. Excluding that, IU moved much like the team bus did on State Route 37 with 85 yards on 28 carries for 3.04 yards per rush. Play calling fell in line with this performance; IU had 92 plays, 63 of which were passes (67.42%) compared to a season average of 55.83%. While not quite Mike Leach levels (Wazzou has averaged 73.80% passes this year), it exceeds the season average of most pass-heavy offenses not coached by a pirate. New Mexico State would be third (66.67% passes). The tremendous workload by Purdue’s defense (IU ran 56.44% of plays in the game) makes their good performance look much greater. IU was not able to do much in the air, with only 5.52 yards per dropback. With a Purdue pass rush that was only mediocre (4.76% of dropbacks resulted in sacks, compared to an FBS average of 6.23% and an IU allowed average of 5.46%), this comes down to a mix of good coverage and Lagow choosing his passes poorly. These offensive struggles for IU, as well as a slight field position advantage for the Boilers (average starting field position for Purdue was their own 31.09 yard line compared to IU starting at their own 27.75 yard line) helped push the Boilers over the top and bring the Bucket home [2,3,4].
What’s Next
Purdue, of course, is going to a bowl game. And not losing its coach to Tennessee. Since we won’t have a bowl selection and opponent until Sunday, there will be no preview this week of that opponent. That will be appearing next week. The coming weeks will likely see some non-Purdue content, including more fun with numbers and holidays and a Fiction v. Engineering. There may be some Purdue women’s basketball content coming in the future, because GABS.
I thank everyone who has kept reading this column and been supportive of this effort. I especially thank my wife Carly, who has volunteered to edit my often rambling writing and turn it into something half respectable. And laugh at my bad jokes (or at me for making them), including the Indiana Jones jokes I forced into every nook and cranny of this week’s post.
For those of you who believe that my writing is more than half than respectable, I’d like to direct you to the button on the top of the page that says “Buy Me a Coffee.” That will direct you to my Kofi page where you can provide me a small tip (say, about the price of an overpriced beverage at a national coffeehouse chain) as a token of appreciation of my writing, help make sure my brain has enough caffeine to function.
Boiler Up!
References
[1] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[2] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400935422
[4] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935422
[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/2509
[6] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/3791143/markell-jones
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