2018 Weekly Boiler Stat Summaries: Week 2, v. Eastern Michigan

Whelp, that happened. There is a lot that didn't go well. Some of that is due to the weather. Some of it was due to bad play. Some of it was due to the fact that Eastern Michigan, despite being a historically challenged programs, has become a decent football team.

But First, Some Weird Optimism 

While preparing the statistics for this post, among the major issues was a very strange, very positive stat. There is probably a factor of small sample size size here, but Purdue is currently leading the nation in yards per rush (as usual, with sacks excluded):

Figure 1: Top 20 Rushing Offenses in FBS [1]

And it really isn't that close. The 0.63 yards per rush that separate second place Memphis and Purdue is greater than the separation between Memphis and eighth place Central Florida. For all of these teams, having an excellent rushing offense powers an above average performance in terms of yards per play. This is true even for teams that (like Purdue) have struggled to throw the ball. With a more consistent passing attack, the Boilers have the potential to be a dynamic offense. The problem, of course, is that passing attack has been lacking [1].

It Could Be Worse; It Could Be Raining

Much like last week, both Sindelar and Blough left a lot to be desired. The numbers alone are pretty ugly:

Figure 2: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics [2,3]

Figure 3: Purdue Drive Statistics By Quarterback [2,3]

There isn't much to say beyond trends that appeared last week, and the pure awfulness of these numbers. While Sindelar was able to avoid turnovers, not much else was positive. This forced Brohm to call just 37.88% of plays as passes; probably a good strategy given the extreme strength of the rushing attack [4].

While horrible weather is a factor, the Eastern Michigan Eagles were able to have success in the air despite playing in the same rain drenched Ross-Ade Stadium:

Figure 4: Eastern Michigan Individual Passing Statistics [2,3]

Going into a game against Mizzou where the Boilers will need to supplement a strong rushing attack with at least a decent passing attach (particularly downfield), there is a lot of work this week. Either Blough needs to become more comfortable pushing the ball downfield, or Sindelar needs to find greater consistency. If either can occur, a potent Boilermaker offense can develop with both a strong rushing attack and the ability to capitalize on defenses stacking the box. My hope is the potential talent of either quarterback can shine, but I am pessimistic enough to feel that is not very likely.

Fumbles, Field Position, and Penalties

While the quarterbacks managed to hold onto the ball, the running backs struggled to hold onto the bowl with the wet weather with five fumbles - two of which were lost. And the location of loses is also important; one was by Rondale Moore at the EMU 11 with 9:21 left in the second quarter. Purdue could have easily gained 3 points that could have proved vital at that point; instead they came away with none (Spencer Evans on his career is 5/5 within 20-29 yards; from the 11 it would have been a 28 yard attempt). The second was at the 50 with 14:28 left in the fourth. While EMU failed to take advantage of those opportunities, the fact that both drives that ended in fumbles occurred with favorable Purdue field position has them as major missed opportunities [3,5].

Poor field position helped to keep the Boilermaker offense stuck in the mud. While the average field position between the Boilers and Eagles was not all that different (an average of 74.75 yards to the opponent's endzone for Purdue compared to EMU's 71 yards) and was a net difference of 0.08 expected points per drive, that was in some ways as a result of Purdue getting very good field position on a single drive in the fourth quarter. The Boilers much more often found themselves stuck in close proximity to their endzone with EMU in more manageable field positions [3].

Figure 5: Starting Field Positions for EMU and Purdue [3]

The terrible field position made the Boilers ability to score anemic, placing yet another factor in the Eagle's favor in bringing about their victory.

Much like last week against Northwestern, late defensive penalties gave critical first downs to the Boilers' opponents. Purdue conceded three first downs as a result of defensive penalties - two within the final EMU drive on situations where the Eagles had over 10 yards for a first down. The Eagles conceded no defensive first downs via penalties. These are dumb, stupid issues that have had a major impact on deciding both games so far this season. Coach Brohm has stated a priority in practice to try and avoid these mistakes going forward; hopefully this effort will pay off [3,6].

General Defensive Notes
In addition to the penalties, the Purdue defensive performance was very much a mixed bag. Based on starting field position, the Eagles should have averaged 2.04 points per drive; instead, they scored a meager 1.54 points per drive - a 24.6% reduction. The Eagles, despite an effective passing attack (see Figure 4), had almost no run game - generating a meager 3.64 yards per rush compared to the FBS average of 5.30 [1,2,3].

Figure 6: EMU Individual Rushing Statistics [2,3]

Since the Eagles largely abandoned the run (passing on 60.94% of plays), the much better passing offense (compare their 8.74 yards per dropback to the FBS average of 6.80)  boosted their yards per play to 7.03  (FBS average: 6.01 yards/play), which is impressive given the terrible weather. On the brightside, Purdue actually had a pass rush - managing a sack on 13.16% of dropbacks (FBS average: 6.33%). The effective rushing defense with a shaky pass defense gives Purdue a much better matchup against its Big Ten West foes than most other teams, given the reliance on the run from most of the division. If the Boilers can improve on pass defense over the season, by the end of the season the Boilers could return to their 2017 level [1,2,4].

Stripes Under The Stars
Next up in Ross-Ade Stadium will be the Missouri Tigers, an opponent the Boilers shocked last year with a win in Columbia. Coming into that game, while potent on offense, the Tigers had proved vulnerable on defense and had fired the coordinator on that side of the ball. This year, the Tigers return many of the pieces of that potent passing offense that led them to a bowl game after their shaky start. This includes Drew Lock, who will likely be picked in the first round of the NFL Draft next spring. Lock's play, with the Tigers 9th in FBS yards per dropback with 10.03, is definitely playing like it. Which, for the Tigers, is good as their rushing offense has been horrid with 4.08 yards per rush (107th in FBS) - and still meant they average 6.86 yards per play (30th in FBS). [1].

Figure 7: Mizzou Team Statistics [1,7]

Unlike last year, the Tigers have a competent defense. This is particularly in defending the rush, allowing only 3.83 yards per rush. This is going to be bad match up for a Boilermaker squad that needs to rely on the rush to move the ball. Their pass defense is solid as well, which isn't much of a help to a Boilermaker passing game that is averaging 5.37 yards per dropback [1].

Figure 8: Purdue Team Statistics [1,7]

S&P+ isn't predicting a pretty game, expecting Mizzou to win 39-25. I agree, given the matchup of our single dimensional offense is against a solid defense and the strength of their offense is pitted against the weakness of our defense. I want to believe we can be competitive in this game. Right now, the Boilers have not shown much to instill that belief. If something strange happens under the lights Saturday night, I am all for it. I just see my brother-in-law (Missouri Class of 2017) being happier from the game this year compared to last year... [8]

Boiler Up!

References:

[1] https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings?sport_code=MFB&division=11

[2] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2018-09-08-purdue.html

[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401013352

[4] http://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401013352

[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/stats/_/id/3139103/spencer-evans

[6] http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24636880/purdue-penalties-prompt-brohm-adopt-new-punishments
[7] https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa2018
[8] https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/9/13/17854190/college-football-picks-week-3-2018-predictions-odds-spreads