Well, there we have it. Win number one of the season. That it comes in week four, to a ranked opponent, is odd in a number of ways. The first is, per S&P+, Purdue's second order wins (i.e., wins expected based on how a team plays) is 2.8, with the way Purdue played anticipating a record closer to 3-1 than 1-3. The second is that Purdue's easiest opponent was Eastern Michigan (74th), their second easiest Northwestern (60th), with Boston College as the second best team Purdue has played at 41st. Purdue, 45th in S&P+ beat them by 17, with the neutral field point spread 0.6 points in BC's favor. The Boiler's toughest opponent so far was Mizzou, currently 27th in S&P+. The third is that while BC is run focused team, running the ball 63.23% of plays, they have a stellar 9.21 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.75), fed off the play action game. While Purdue's relatively stronger run defense could be trusted to shutdown the Eagle's rushing attack, it would have been expected for Anthony Brown to have success with a Boilermaker defense that struggled both with the pass rush and pass coverage. The Boilers, however, did the unexpected [1,2].
(Don't) Fly Like An Eagle
BC's run-first approach requires having some amount of success on the ground. Over the season, the Eagles have done that, gaining 5.30 yards per rush (FBS average: 5.19). On Saturday, not quite [2].
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| Figure 1: Boston College Individual Rushing Statistics [3,4] |
AJ Dillion took the bulk of the carries and struggled mightily, along with the rest of BC's rushers. This prompted the Eagle's to shift how they approached their offense, throwing on 52.38% of their plays. With a struggling Boilermaker pass defense (allowing 6.71 yards/dropback, compared to an FBS average 6.21), this would seem like a good strategy. It, to put it kindly, did not work [2,3,4]:
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| Figure 2: Boston College Individual Passing Statistics [3,4] |
On the year Anthony Brown has completed 61.3% of his passes, been sacked on only 7.4% of dropbacks, and prior to this game had not thrown an interception. With the passing game being the only means for the Eagles to moved the ball, the Boilermaker defense stepped up, and Brown struggled. The defensive line, hasn't been great at getting to the quarterback, getting a sack on 7.14% of dropbacks (FBS average: 6.51%). Their improvement against the Eagles is understated by the sack rate, as two of the interceptions came as a result of defensive line actions. If the defense can perform like this going forward, down the stretch the Boilers can have a chance of having a particularly effective defense. And, importantly, one well matched to its opponents, with all but two running the ball more than the FBS average [2,3,4,5]:
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| Figure 3: Offensive Profiles of Purdue's Remaining Opponents [2] |
Fun With Field Position and Expected Points
If you want yet another chart on how BC really struggled, here you go:
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| Figure 4: Drive Statistics for Boston College and Purdue [4] |
I Only Have One Quarterback To Talk About, And I Am Very Happy About This
As a result of Coach Brohm announcing Blough as the starting going into the Nebraska game with Sindelar still having injury issues, I may get three weeks (plus a bye) of only having one quarterback to talk about. This makes a happy writer. Let me celebrate with decaf hotel coffee as I travel for work [6].
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| Figure 5: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics [3,4] |
Blough continued to pass well, posting yards per dropback exceeding the FBS average of 6.75 yards per dropback. His completion percentage (FBS average: 60.91%) was solid, as was yards per completion (FBS average: 12.45). The sack rate, way above the FBS average of 5.86%, is worrying, although the season average is close to the FBS average (5.56%), so this week might be a fluke [2,3,4].
Blough's success was pretty darn nice to have, as the Boilermaker rushing offense struggled as much as Boston College's:
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| Figure 6: Purdue Individual Rushing Statistics [3,4] |
Given the relative strength of our running back corp and Rondale Moore's general ability to make yards appear out of thin air, this is a bit worrying. BC isn't much above average in rushing defense, allowing 4.52 yards per rush (FBS average: 4.81). And against a slightly better Northwestern rush defense (4.42 yards per rush), the Boilers had significant success. While the Boilers had success today being somewhat one dimensional, that is not always going to be the case. While it is possible the Boiler offensive line just had a bad day, the rushing attack also failed to impress against Missouri last week. Going forward, having a mobile, accurate, deep threatening David Blough able to work off play action built on the effective running Purdue had early in the year would be a potent offense. For some reason, apparently the Boilers can only have some of that working at any one time [2,3,4].
B-word Update
As I did last year, using the S&P+ win probabilities for each game Bill Connolly puts together, I will add in a weekly segment showing the probability for each win total, and then make a joke about booking travel through a company with whom I have no formal connection to, but happen to have good experiences with (Southwest Airlines).
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| Figure 7: Purdue Win Distribution [5] |
Well, all I am saying is we have a chance. I mean, not a good one, but a chance. Actually, given the specific matchups, maybe a better chance then S&P+ gives. Anyways, all I suggest is, since Southwest Airlines has no fee to change you booked flight, why don't you book some travel to family or a warm winter destination, then if there is some post season play, you change the flight for FREE.
First Frost of The Next Few Seasons
Scott Frost's return to Lincoln has not been a return down memory lane for Cornhusker fans. They had a game cancelled due to a mix of weather and poor planning, lost their starting quarterback to injury, and had to face a rough first three games in Colorado, Troy, and Michigan, and are now 0-3. And it has not been pretty, however pretty 0-3 could be:
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| Figure 8: Nebraska Team Statistics [1,2] |
On offense, their average run game is paired to a passing attack that currently has walk-on Andrew Bunch starting after Adrian Martinez's injury. Bunch has been mediocre at best, with 5.7 yards per dropback (FBS average: 12.45), a 64.4% completion percentage (FBS average: 60.91%), and 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Allowing almost double the FBS average in sacks (5.56%) also should be an advantage for a Boilermaker defense still working on a reliable pass rush. Nebraska leaning a average rushing attack should be a good matchup for a Boilermaker defense that has proved adept at stopping the run, particularly against teams that try to focus on it (see the rest of this post) [1].
The Cornhusker defense is not exactly the Black Shirts of old either. Their struggles against the run should allow the Purdue running back corp to have success. That should help a Boilermaker offense that will be facing a pretty feisty pass rush, average a sack rate of 9.73% (FBS average: 6.51%). If offensive success can be had by either leaning on the run and/or using play action to give Blough more time, this could be a long day for those in red in Lincoln [2].
S&P+ is giving Purdue a 62% chance of winning this game. For hopes of success for the rest of this season, this is in someways a must win, as there are few games beyond these next two (Illinois is on deck) in which the Boilers are favored. I personally like our chances and feel S&P+ is correct in heavily favoring us, but I am superstitious enough to know to stop typing [1].
Boiler up!
References
[1] https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa2018
[2] https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings?sport_code=MFB&division=11
[3] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2018-09-22-purdue.html
[4] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401013119
[5] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml
[6] http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24786579/david-blough-start-purdue-nebraska
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