2018 Weekly Boiler Stat Summaries: Week 5, v. Nebraska

Nebraska has been quite bad in Scott Frost's first season. We beat them handily, which continues the level of play the Boilers have put together in the past couple weeks. That is, of course, great. However, looking at the stats, there are a few worrying issues that present themselves, despite the very positive 42-28 score line.

The Good, the Bad, and the Frustrating of the Passing Game

Once again, Brohm leaned on the arm of David Blough to deliver a victory, with 54.43% of plays passes (FBS average: 47.02%). Blough continued to deliver. In both yards per dropback (7.81) and yards per completion (13.12), Blough exceeded the FBS average (6.72 yards/dropback and 12.43 yards/completion). He definitely has his offensive line to thank: the Huskers recorded a single sack on 43 dropbacks, for a sack rate of 2.33%. Nebraska's 7.69% sack rate on the season is above average (6.57%), and they were unable to get any pressure on Blough [1,2,3].

Figure 1: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics [1,2,3]

On the flip side, the Boilermaker receiving corps were a bit of a mixed bag. In general, Purdue's catch rate of 65.79% well exceeded the FBS average of 58.12%, with the wide receivers a bit closer to average, with 59.26%. However, there was wild variation among the receivers [1,4]:

Figure 2: Purdue Individual Receiving Statistics [1,2]

Rondale Moore, who was most targeted, continued to be stellar, along with the running backs and tight ends. However, the two outside receivers absolutely struggled, with both Isaac Zico and Jared Sparks having catch rates below 50%. The numbers speak for themselves, but what is more annoying (at least subjectively) is that a number of those drops or passes defended were in prime position to score, including a couple times balls passed through receivers hands. With a young receiving corp, this isn't too shocking, but is definitely a place for the coaching staff to focus for practice during the bye week [1]. 

An Average Day On The Ground

On the season, the Boiler's 22nd ranked rushing offense (6.03 yards/rush; FBS average: 5.15) has been a major mover of the ball down the field. On Saturday, it was just average, netting 5.28 yards/rush (on the year, that would rank 54th in FBS, a spot currently occupied by Utah). It is pretty close to what the Huskers have allowed on the season, at 5.27 yards/rush allowed. Some of this comes down to Brohm choosing to pass in most situations, mainly running in game states where it is obvious. With the passing game flourishing, that is an OK strategy, although given the talent we have at the running back position (see the gaudy numbers put up in the first few weeks of the season), greater use of the rushing game may make sense in more situations in the game [1,2,3].

Figure 3: Purdue Individual Rushing Statistics [1,2]

Thank Goodness for Field Position

The Huskers, despite losing, were still able to move the ball relatively well, putting up similar numbers to the Boilers in the passing game and rather impressive numbers while rushing:

Figure 4: Nebraska Individual Passing Statistics [1,2]

Figure 5: Nebraska Individual Rushing Statistics [1,2]

That is a rushing average that would rank second in FBS if averaged over the year. Because Purdue was able to pull ahead early enough, the Huskers weren't able to fully utilize the rushing attack, throwing on 55.00% of plays. Purdue did an excellent job on third down, allowing the Huskers to gain first downs on only 33.33% of third downs. This set up pretty great field position for the Boilers, which played into their success greatly [1,2,5]: 

Figure 6: Drive Statistics [1]

B-word Update

Figure 7: Purdue Win Distribution [6]

Starting 0-3 absolutely did not help the odds of returning to the post season. It doesn't sink it totally, but definitely makes the fact Southwest flies non-stop to more places than just hubs great for the visiting family you will probably see without a trip to the post season. A large amount of this comes from the fact, aside from at Illinois after the bye, Purdue is not favored in a single game and faces three opponents in the top 25 in S&P+ and their worst opponent at 55th (Minnesota, in Minneapolis). And while the Boilers may have been stout against the run against BC, a performance like this past weekend's is not going to be enough to upset the likes of Wisconsin or Iowa. Unless the run defense can prove to be consistent, picking up four more wins in the Big Ten West will be difficult [6].

Don't Go To Where Else

Coming up this weekend is the bye week, with a chance for some of the issues with the team to be fixed in practice, and for players to get a chance to rest, and hopefully not get arrested at Where Else. Likely coming up over this week is some non-Purdue content from this blog, in addition to a preview of the 13 October game at Illinois. 

Figure 8: Purdue Team Statistics [3,6]

Boiler Up!

References

[1] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401013338

[2] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2018-09-29-nebraska.html

[3] https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div

[4] http://ncaasavant.com/targets.php

[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401013338

[6] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#