With a 46-7 beat down of the Illini, the Cannon remains in West Lafayette. For those of you who ran the Boilermaker Half Marathon along with me, watching the game provided a nice thing to do while resting some tired legs. It also places Purdue at 2-1 in conference, a half game and a tie breaker back from Northwestern (3-1 in conference, 3-3 overall) in the table and tied with Wisconsin (4-2 overall) and Iowa (5-1 overall) [1] in second. How did this happen? Well...
Despite pretty similar field position to their own, the Boilermakers absolutely trounced the Illini on both sides of the ball leading to the lopsided stat line. The defensive play stands out, with 0.54 points scored per drive compared to an expected 1.95. With a Boilermaker defense that has been struggling on the year, the ability to put together a great performance is a promising thing to see. The offense, despite some woes kicking extra points, put together a banner day compared to its field position with 1.86 more points than the expected, for a net (i.e. scored minus allowed) of 3.29 points/drive. Yeah, a nice way to keep the Cannon [3].
A (Santa) Lovie Smith Offense
Coming into the game, I was most scared of Illinois's rushing offense moving the ball effectively. That failed to happen:
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| Figure 1: Illinois Individual Rushing Statistics [2,3] |
The Boilermaker defense shutdown the Illinois rushing offense, which has averaged 6.09 yards/rush over the season. This came from containing quarterback AJ Bush, who managed only 3.33 yards/rush compared to his 6.30 season average. Given the Boilers had struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks through this season (e.g. allowing 6.38 yards/rush to Nebraska's Adrian Martinez), this is a major step forward - particularly with Dwayne Haskins and Ohio State in Ross-Ade this Saturday [2,3,4,5].
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| Figure 2: Illinois Individual Passing Statistics [2,3] |
The Illini's passing attack is not great, and was held in check. Some of this was poor accuracy by Bush, but a large portion was the Boiler's ability to put pressure on both Bush and Robinson. The sack rate on Saturday of 12.12% dwarfed the 6.59% FBS average and 7.36% Purdue season average. It slightly exceeded the Illini's allowed average of 9.77% [2,3,4].
At the drive level, the Boilermaker dominance is incredible:
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| Figure 3: Drive Statistics [3] |
Despite pretty similar field position to their own, the Boilermakers absolutely trounced the Illini on both sides of the ball leading to the lopsided stat line. The defensive play stands out, with 0.54 points scored per drive compared to an expected 1.95. With a Boilermaker defense that has been struggling on the year, the ability to put together a great performance is a promising thing to see. The offense, despite some woes kicking extra points, put together a banner day compared to its field position with 1.86 more points than the expected, for a net (i.e. scored minus allowed) of 3.29 points/drive. Yeah, a nice way to keep the Cannon [3].
Sparks Throws A Pass!
Once again, David Blough impressed as quarterback, with a pretty healthy stat line:
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| Figure 4: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics [2,3] |
His yards/dropback were quite a bit above the FBS average of 6.61. He has a great offensive line performance to thank, with 5.26% of dropbacks ending with sacks compared to the FBS average of 6.20%. In a game where the Boilers were dominant, there isn't a ton to say much more than a job well done for the key man behind center [2,3].
Last year Jared Sparks, who was officially on the roster as a quarterback, ran exclusively when taking snaps. Now that Sparks is officially a wideout, he finally got a chance to throw the ball. This netted a beautiful pass to David Blough and a beautiful stat line for a career of 100% completions, never having been sacked, 7.00 yards/dropback, and only throwing touchdowns [2,3].
Four Legs of Victory
Once again, Knox and Jones put up stellar performances running the ball, torching the FBS average of 5.14 yards/rush:
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| Figure 5: Purdue Individual Rushing Statistics [2,3] |
The rest of the team, getting play time in a blow out, impressed much less. Tario Fuller, who had success last year filling in for Jones and Knox, struggled mightily in garbage time with 1.83 yards/rush. Alexander Horvath's 3.80 yards/rush at least has the context of mainly coming from short yardage situations, but still isn't great. Going forward, seeing more out of Fuller would be a nice sign for depth and for 2019; given his larger sample size over last year (6.07 yards/rush on 43 attempts), this game may just be an outlier [2,3,6]
B-word Update
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| Figure 6: Purdue Win Distribution [7] |
To avoid jinxing anything by getting overly excited, I shall remind you Southwest Airlines serves Dr Pepper, unlike many other airlines.
an Ohio State University
Saturday night will see the Buckeyes travel to West Lafayette, with OSU looking for another win towards the playoff. The Boilers are still in the Big Ten West race and looking for an upset under lights. Might it happen?
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| Figure 7: Ohio State Team Statistics [4,8] |
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| Figure 8: Purdue Team Statistics [4,8] |
The Buckeyes are a great football team, but they do have weaknesses that contributed to the Boilers having a 28% chance of winning and being only 10.1 point underdogs. The Buckeye rushing offense, despite having dual-threat Dwayne Haskins behind center, is only managing 4.84 yards/rush - well below the FBS average of 5.14 yards/rush. Indeed, both Haskins (4.0 yards/rush) and top rusher J.K. Dobbins (4.6 yards/rush) are below the FBS average. Their passing offense, on the other hand, is going to cause the Boilers fits, with 9.07 yards/dropback (compared to the FBS average of 6.60). Haskins has completed 72.3% of his passes and has been well protected with the Buckeyes only allowing a sack on 3.91% of passes (FBS average: 6.20%). Against a not great Purdue passing defense, the Buckeyes are going to have a chance to score a ton of points [4,7].
On the other side of the ball, the Boilers have a great chance to hold serve. The Buckeyes have struggled to stop the run, allowing 5.37 yards/rush (FBS average: 4.88). Against Knox and Jones, the Buckeyes may have a long night. That may be relief for David Blough; the Buckeyes are excellent at rushing the passer, with a sack on 10.08% of dropbacks (FBS average: 6.59%). Even without injured Nick Bosa's four sacks over the season, the Buckeyes have a sack on 8.40% of dropbacks. Although they are allowing a decent amount of yardage on non-sack dropbacks (7.25 yards/attempt, compared to the FBS average of 7.16), if the offensive line can't protect David Blough it will be a long night. If they can, there will be a shootout under the Ross-Ade lights [4,7].
Boiler Up!
References
[1] http://www.espn.com/college-football/standings?group=5
[2] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2018-10-13-illinois.html
[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401012809
[4] https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div
[5] https://speakwithdata.blogspot.com/2018/10/2018-weekly-boiler-stat-summaries-week.html
[6] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tario-fuller-1.html
[7] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#
[8] https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa2018
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