So far, it appears no athletes have been arrested at this week at Where Else. So, that should count as a victory...
Blough Us All Away
Four games in, and we still are having a quarterback controversy. Blough suffered shoulder injuries in camp and against Michigan which have helped to limit his playing time, but Sindelar continues to get significant reps beyond a pure back-up role. This is a bit odd considering Blough's play has been significantly better than Sindelar's:
Blough's accuracy has far exceeded Sindelar's, with Sindelar still under 50% completions on the year and Blough over twenty percentage points higher. Blough has out-performed Sindelar in almost all statistical categories, excluding his higher sack rate. Even with more sacks per dropback Blough is outperforming Sindelar as a passer, and Blough also has more ability as a rusher. These factors have led the drives with Blough at the helm to be more fruitful in producing points. Blough, when healthy, should be the man taking the snaps.
The Kids Are Alright (And Not Any Better)
Over the season, Purdue has been neither particularly great nor particularly bad on the both sides of the ball. Currently we are 72nd in Overall S&P+, 65th on offense and 74th on defense [8].
Breaking down the stats on both sides of the ball, the mediocrity of Purdue illuminates itself.
Given these statistics are not adjusted for strength of schedule, facing two top 25 teams, the defending MAC champion, and an SEC team hurts these numbers. On defense our greatest strength is our rushing defense - allowing fewer than 0.58 less yards per carry than average and ranked 43rd in the nation. Of course, both overall and in specific areas, Purdue has not been particularly successful. Teams have had success in the passing game against the Boilers, in part due to a struggling pass rush defense.
Facing an anemic pass rush in practice apparently has not prepared the Boilers to face the pass rush; we rank 111th in the nation at allowing sacks. While these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt due to the fact that 25% of our stats came against a dominant Michigan defense, they do not inspire confidence. We are below average in almost all offensive statistics, with neither the pass nor rush offenses ranking that differently compared to each other in national rankings. We have been capable of moving the ball, but have not truly excelled. Hopefully adjustments made in the bye week (and a chance to get injured players healed) will help the Boilers to improve their performance. In particular, Blough becoming healthy enough to truly become the starter would be significant; his 6.44 yards per dropback would rank 72nd in the nation if he was the only quarterback to factor into that statistic.
B-word Update
If you were planning on flying anywhere for the holidays, now is the time to remember Southwest will allow you to change a flight without fees.
GOPHERS
Post bye week, the Boilers are against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at home. Since it's at home, going Caddyshack on these Gophers would be a bad plan.
Minnesota lost last week to a Maryland team featuring a third string quarterback. However, this is a solid team that may be a sleeper pick in the Big Ten West. Despite being less than efficient running the ball, 68.67% of their plays have been rushes which presents an opportunity for Purdue's defense. Of course, to keep the chains moving the Gophers have been quite a dangerous passing team as well with 8.67 yards per dropback, which is 10th in the nation (allowing 0.01 sacks per dropback has helped this significantly). This will be an interesting match-up for Purdue's defense, which has been successful in stopping the run but has struggled at times stopping the pass [6].
Purdue's offense will face a stout defense: 17th in the nation in defensive S&P+, allowing 4.51 yards per play. Their passing defense has struggled with the pass rush but has otherwise made passing inefficient for their opponents, ranking 14th in yards allowed per dropback. Their rush defense hasn't been as great; at 4.35 yards per rush, they rank 51st in the nation. Again, this will be a test for the Boilermaker offense, but if the rushing attack can be successful as it was against Ohio it may be an opportunity for the Boilers [9,6].
S&P+ has the Gophers as a favorite with a 66% chance to win (projected score: MIN 27.6-PUR 24.9). Because of the nature of these two teams, there is potential for a classic Big Ten slugfest. Of course, Purdue has also shown potential to break out offensively (see Louisville, THE Ohio, the first half v. Mizzou); if Brohm can work some magic, the stout Minnesota defense may have to slink back into their holes [8].
Boiler Up!
[Editor's Comment: In the immortal words of Jean Paul Sartre, 'Au revoir, gopher'.]
References:
[1] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935238
[2] http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/boxscore?id=27211
[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400933860
[4] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935364
[5] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/purdue/2017.html
[6] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[7] http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr
[8] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[9] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-minnesota-advanced-statistical-profile
Blough Us All Away
Four games in, and we still are having a quarterback controversy. Blough suffered shoulder injuries in camp and against Michigan which have helped to limit his playing time, but Sindelar continues to get significant reps beyond a pure back-up role. This is a bit odd considering Blough's play has been significantly better than Sindelar's:
 | ||
Figure 1: By Drive Quarterback Stats [1,2,3,4]
|
 |
| Figure 3: Rushing Stats for Blough and Sindelar [5,6,7] |
Blough's accuracy has far exceeded Sindelar's, with Sindelar still under 50% completions on the year and Blough over twenty percentage points higher. Blough has out-performed Sindelar in almost all statistical categories, excluding his higher sack rate. Even with more sacks per dropback Blough is outperforming Sindelar as a passer, and Blough also has more ability as a rusher. These factors have led the drives with Blough at the helm to be more fruitful in producing points. Blough, when healthy, should be the man taking the snaps.
The Kids Are Alright (And Not Any Better)
Over the season, Purdue has been neither particularly great nor particularly bad on the both sides of the ball. Currently we are 72nd in Overall S&P+, 65th on offense and 74th on defense [8].
Breaking down the stats on both sides of the ball, the mediocrity of Purdue illuminates itself.
 |
| Figure 4: Purdue Defensive Statistics [6] |
 |
| Figure 5: Purdue Offensive Statistics [6] |
Given these statistics are not adjusted for strength of schedule, facing two top 25 teams, the defending MAC champion, and an SEC team hurts these numbers. On defense our greatest strength is our rushing defense - allowing fewer than 0.58 less yards per carry than average and ranked 43rd in the nation. Of course, both overall and in specific areas, Purdue has not been particularly successful. Teams have had success in the passing game against the Boilers, in part due to a struggling pass rush defense.
Facing an anemic pass rush in practice apparently has not prepared the Boilers to face the pass rush; we rank 111th in the nation at allowing sacks. While these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt due to the fact that 25% of our stats came against a dominant Michigan defense, they do not inspire confidence. We are below average in almost all offensive statistics, with neither the pass nor rush offenses ranking that differently compared to each other in national rankings. We have been capable of moving the ball, but have not truly excelled. Hopefully adjustments made in the bye week (and a chance to get injured players healed) will help the Boilers to improve their performance. In particular, Blough becoming healthy enough to truly become the starter would be significant; his 6.44 yards per dropback would rank 72nd in the nation if he was the only quarterback to factor into that statistic.
B-word Update
 |
| Figure 6: Purdue Win Distribution [8] |
If you were planning on flying anywhere for the holidays, now is the time to remember Southwest will allow you to change a flight without fees.
GOPHERS
Post bye week, the Boilers are against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at home. Since it's at home, going Caddyshack on these Gophers would be a bad plan.
 |
| Figure 7: Minnesota Statistics [6, 9] |
Minnesota lost last week to a Maryland team featuring a third string quarterback. However, this is a solid team that may be a sleeper pick in the Big Ten West. Despite being less than efficient running the ball, 68.67% of their plays have been rushes which presents an opportunity for Purdue's defense. Of course, to keep the chains moving the Gophers have been quite a dangerous passing team as well with 8.67 yards per dropback, which is 10th in the nation (allowing 0.01 sacks per dropback has helped this significantly). This will be an interesting match-up for Purdue's defense, which has been successful in stopping the run but has struggled at times stopping the pass [6].
Purdue's offense will face a stout defense: 17th in the nation in defensive S&P+, allowing 4.51 yards per play. Their passing defense has struggled with the pass rush but has otherwise made passing inefficient for their opponents, ranking 14th in yards allowed per dropback. Their rush defense hasn't been as great; at 4.35 yards per rush, they rank 51st in the nation. Again, this will be a test for the Boilermaker offense, but if the rushing attack can be successful as it was against Ohio it may be an opportunity for the Boilers [9,6].
S&P+ has the Gophers as a favorite with a 66% chance to win (projected score: MIN 27.6-PUR 24.9). Because of the nature of these two teams, there is potential for a classic Big Ten slugfest. Of course, Purdue has also shown potential to break out offensively (see Louisville, THE Ohio, the first half v. Mizzou); if Brohm can work some magic, the stout Minnesota defense may have to slink back into their holes [8].
Boiler Up!
[Editor's Comment: In the immortal words of Jean Paul Sartre, 'Au revoir, gopher'.]
References:
[1] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935238
[2] http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/boxscore?id=27211
[3] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400933860
[4] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935364
[5] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/purdue/2017.html
[6] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[7] http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr
[8] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[9] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-minnesota-advanced-statistical-profile
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