2017 Weekly Boiler Stat Summaries: Week 6, v. Minnesota

I have a confession to make going into this article: I only watched the first half and then the last few minutes of this game. Some family was visiting from out of town, and it was decided that instead of watching a frustrating Purdue performance we could do a wine tasting instead (at Cooper's Hawk, which appropriately enough was founded by a Purdue alum, and has some incredible wines). Checking on the score at dinner we discovered there was the rain delay, and therefore we were able to catch the clinching pick-six after we got back to our apartment. This game was weird, with Purdue managing to win despite an inability to hold onto the ball during the first half. To comprehend this, time to get to the numbers.

Elijah Arrives

No, not that Elijah. But I mean, if Elijah Sindelar showed up to my apartment on Passover he would be welcome. Jokes aside, throughout the season I have been critical of Sindelar's performance, given he had under a 50% completion rate and his drives were less efficient than Blough's.

This week proved to be different. Blough, after re-injuring his shoulder during the Michigan game, started the game. However, even during warm-up it was clear he was experiencing pain with each throw. Blough, not at 100%, was not the clear #1 he has been over the year.

Figure 1: Drive Statistics for Each Quarterback [1]

Figure 2: Passing Statistics for Each Quarterback [2,3]

In the drive based statistics Blough still appears to be more productive, albeit on fewer drives. With either QB taking the snaps, Purdue's offense was rather effective; with 7.22 yards per play, they heavily exceeded both the national average of 5.81 yards per play and Minnesota's average of 4.97 yards per play allowed. However, the points per drive for each QB as well as the team overall (1.92) were not particularly great, especially given that coming into the game Purdue had averaged 2.23 points per drive [1,4].

In terms of individual passing statistics, Sindelar stepped up to the challenge of coming in to relieve Blough. Posting a completion percentage of 73.08% is an incredible step forward for a player who came into the game with a 47.62% completion percentage over the year. In terms of yards per dropback he excelled as well, with 8.46 yards per dropback this week compared to 5.08 over the rest of the season. This is against a Minnesota defense that had done well against passers, giving up 5.13 yards per dropback [2,4,5].

I'm not usually a fan of a two quarterback system. However, given the talent of both players and Blough's recent struggles with a shoulder injury, it makes some sense to use the player most able to have success that day. It allows Blough to not further injure his shoulder, which allows him to be healthier in games where Sindelar may struggle or where his added mobility may come in handy. Sindelar, who is still has room to grow, is allowed to progress without the hits and pressure of being the full time starter. The bullpen approach has worked so far; it makes sense to continue using it going forward

Injure One RB, Two More Will Take His Place

Purdue has had issues keeping running backs healthy this year. Markell Jones suffered an injury in the opener and missed the first four games while Tario Fuller, who has excelled as the #1 back with 6.1 yards per carry (compared to a national average of 5.1 yards per carry), went out with a foot injury against Michigan [2,4,5].

Figure 3: Purdue Individual Rushing Statistics (For Quarterbacks, Sacks Are Excluded) [2]

In Fuller's absence, Jones and Knox led a productive day on the ground - with Knox having a spectacular 8 yards per rush and the team exceeding the years per rush FBS average. Considering the Gophers on average hold their opponents to 4.74 yards per rush, Purdue's day on the ground was a success [2,4].

Keeping Gophers On the Ground

On the season, Minnesota's offense has been a team dedicated to running the ball (67.9% of their plays have been runs). But, with 4.12 yards per rush (national average: 5.10) compared to 7.62 yards per dropback (national average: 6.58) producing only 5.24 yards per play (national average: 5.81), they are significantly more efficient passing the ball [2,4].

Against Purdue, the Gophers were woeful at passing - mustering only 4.04 yards per dropback and sticking quarterback Conor Rhoda with a miserable 44.0% completion percentage. They continued to call mainly runs (only 34.7% of their plays Saturday were passes) as a result. This meant the Gophers, while rushing above their year's average with 4.83 yards per rush Saturday, continued to be inefficient overall on offense with only 4.55 yards per play. Purdue held the Gophers in check on offense, which helped to contribute to their victory despite the Boilers turning the ball over 4 times [2,4].

B-Word Update

Figure 4: Purdue Win Distribution [6]

I'm not actually paid for these Southwest plugs, but it might be wise to start thinking about saving some money for airfare, hotels, and football tickets.

Badger Badger Badger Badger Badger MUSHROOM MUSHROOM

(For those confused: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIyixC9NsLI)
[Editor's Comment: Ever since I saw his title for this section I've had that song stuck in my head. Now we pass that joy along to you, dear reader.]

Purdue, sitting at 52nd in S&P+, is finding itself where it hasn't been in years: in the middle of the college football pack [6].

Figure 5: Purdue Team Statistics [4,6]

Of course, their prize is a date to face Wisconsin at Camp Randall. Wisconsin is, as Wisconsin usually is, a team which runs the ball, runs it a lot, and is really good as a result.

Figure 6: Wisconsin Team Statistics [4,8]

The Badgers are undefeated, ranked 7th in the AP poll, and could find themselves in Playoff consideration should they run the table. This is a team that has been excellent both on offense and defense. They have held teams both in the passing game and rushing game, posting top-20 numbers in most statistical categories. Wisconsin is usually good, but this year's Badgers are really good. And in line with the recent history of Purdue playing Wisconsin, the usual long odds for Purdue continue. S&P+ gives Wisconsin an 86% chance of winning, with an expected score of 36.4-17.8. Purdue's rushing defense will be put to the test. But, given Purdue has been competent at stopping the run, it may be an opportunity for Purdue to keep the game in check, as Wisconsin's passing game typically revolves off the play-action. Wisconsin's defense, however, is strong enough that even if the Boilermakers can limit the Badgers in the rushing and passing attack, the Badgers may come out ahead.

Boiler Up!

References:
[1] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935376
[2] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2017-10-07-purdue.html
[3] http://www.espn.com/ncf/boxscore/_/id/400935376
[4] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[5] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/purdue/2017.html
[6] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[7] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-wisconsin-advanced-statistical-profile
[8] http://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings