Purdue continued its odd, odd string of games with a surprisingly close game against Wisconsin in Camp Randall, losing 9 - 17. Compared to the S&P+ prediction of a 17.8 - 36.4 loss, this score is not terrible. Well, except for the fact that it wasn't a close game by means of Purdue playing well; it was a close game in which both teams failed to take advantage of opportunities. It was a game that, unlike most fans, doesn't increase my optimism going forward. Let me and some numbers explain... [1]
Badgers (Particularly Those Named Jonathan Taylor) Can Gallop 16-19 MPH [2]
Wisconsin, as usual, possessed a strong running game with an elite running back. The current regeneration of the Wisconsin Time Lord Starting Running Back is Jonathan Taylor, who absolutely shredded the Boilermaker defense. He managed 219 yards on 30 carries, netting 7.30 yards per rush. The Badgers on the day had 302 yards on 50 carries, netting 6.04 yards per rush. That's a great day when facing a Boilermaker defense that has allowed 4.67 yards per rush this season [3,4].
These numbers show a Boilermaker defense that is vulnerable to a strong rushing attack, particularly an elite running back. However, when breaking down the individual rushing statistics on the day I noticed something intriguing:
Just a reminder, for my analysis sacks are counted as passes unlike in NCAA official statistics where they are runs. While Taylor burrowed through the Purdue defense, the rest of the offense wasn't as strong: managing only 4.15 yards per rush, which is below Purdue's average of 4.67 yards allowed per rush. While this should be some level of silver lining for the Purdue defense, it should also give an impression that the score should be taken with a grain of salt. A number of critical stops came when Taylor was not rushing the ball, in particular after Taylor's fumble. If Taylor, rather than another back, been given those carries, Wisconsin may have had the opportunity to extend its lead - which would have significantly changed the post-game candor of the Purdue fanbase [3,4].
We Looked A Gift Horse In The Mouth
Wisconsin's three turnovers gave the Boilers excellent opportunities to be in scoring position. Purdue's average field position was the Purdue 40 yard line, with three of the Boilers' nine drives beginning within Wisconsin territory. On those prime opportunities, the Boilermaker offense only managed 3 points. Given Purdue averaged a point per drive on the game, the Boilers wasted opportunities to take advantage of excellent field position. [5]
This Is Your Offense On A Very Good Defense
Purdue's struggles on drives with excellent field position came down to Wisconsin just being a strong defensive team, and holding the Boilers back on all drives. The Boilermaker offense managed only 221 yards on the day, with an average of 4.02 yards per play.
Purdue under-performed significantly compared to its yearly average, as well as what Wisconsin had typically allowed its opponents to gain. Our above average rushing attack was held by Wisconsin to below their season average, although running back injuries played a role. Our passing attack was also held below what Wisconsin usually allows. This is against a potent Badger defense, allowing yards per play in passing, rushing, and overall significantly below the FBS average, and ranking 16th, 9th, and 11th in rushing, passing, and overall yards per play. Wisconsin is a really damn good defense, and it showed. We still have a ways to go before we can compete with the top of the conference [4].
Individual performances are given in figures 3 and 4. There really isn't much to say besides the Badgers are a defense that held Purdue to a sluggish offensive day. Sindelar was again below 50% in completions, with a number of defenders dropping what should have been interceptions, although this is against the strongest defenses he has faced. Blough was sacked twice on his only two dropbacks. None of the running backs had an opportunity to succeed, although Knox and Worship managed above the Badgers' average yards per rush allowed. The main oddity is the less-than-mobile Sindelar having scrambling opportunities against a strong Badger defense. This may be a fluke, or a possible area to exploit when defenses totally neglect to defend the possibility.
B-Word Update
Did you know Southwest sells gift cards? More importantly, does your family know Southwest sells gift cards?
The Birthplace of College Football and Weird, Weird Sandwiches
Ah Rutgers. It's a college older than the United States. It was the birthplace of the "fat sandwich", the infamous and amazing combination of random things (burger patties, mozzarella sticks, chicken fingers, french fries, cheesesteak, etc.) put onto a sub. (For Purdue folks, imagine if State Street was lined with multiple Famous Frank's trucks. That's Rutgers.) It was also the site of the first game of intercollegiate football in 1869, which was won by Rutgers. That marked the peak of Rutgers football.
Rutgers football players are incapable of pumping their own gas, and they've matched that with struggles moving the ball down the field. The Scarlet Knights currently rank 120th (out of 129) in Offensive S&P+, and have a woeful 4.75 yards per play, compared to the FBS average of 5.79. This includes an average of 4.64 yards per rush (nation average: 5.10 yards per rush) and 4.90 yards per dropback (6.55 yards per dropback). For comparison, the Rutgers passing offense, if it were a rushing offense, would rank 70th in yards per play [4,6].
Quarterback play has been a major thorn in the side of the Scarlet Knights. Three different quarterbacks have seen the field. Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin has been getting the majority of the snaps, but was benched prior to the Illinois game due to poor play (6 interceptions and 5.35 yards per attempt would do that). Giovanni Rescigno and Johnathan Lewis have played slightly better than the struggling Bolin, only to both be injured against the Illini and listed as questionable for this Saturday. The poor passing play is why the Scarlet Knights run on 58.54% of their plays, despite not being a great rushing team either. Given Purdue's solid run defense (allowing 4.67 yards per rush, compared to a national average 4.89 yards per rush) and the poor passing performance of the Scarlet Knights, their woes on offense are likely to continue [4].
The Rutgers defense has done an excellent job stopping the run, allowing 4.32 yards per rush (compared to a national average of 4.89 yards per rush, and Purdue's rushing offense of 5.16 yards per rush). For a Purdue unit still missing Tario Fuller this will be a test, although Knox and Jones have put in solid performances the last few weeks. The pass defense for the Scarlet Knights has struggled like someone trying to buy one of NJ's population-limited liquor licenses (yes, there are states with tighter liquor restrictions than Indiana) [11]. With Rutgers allowing 6.99 yards per dropback (national average: 6.23 yards per drop back), this should be an opportunity for a Boilermaker offense passing on 57.50% of its plays to rack up yards and improve on its 5.87 yards per dropback. In particular, Blough and Sindelar may find more time to throw the ball with the Scarlet Knights only managing a sack on 3.65% of opponent dropbacks (compared to a national average 6.26% and Purdue allowing 8.70% of dropbacks to end in a sack) [4].
S&P+ is giving the Boilers a 60% chance of prevailing on the banks of the Raritan, with a projected score of 26.4-22.0. I'm a bit more bullish on the Boilers than S&P+, mainly because of the match-up of a pass-happy Boilermaker offense against a terrible Rutgers pass defense. So Rutgers fans... Saturday may be an opportunity to rub in Indiana's face your far superior Italian food and bagels [1].
Boiler Up!
For those confused about my over-the-top discussion of NJ's odd regulations and culinary delights, I grew up in a mix of Northern Virginia and central New Jersey before attending Purdue and then moving to the Indianapolis area.
References:
[1] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badger
[3] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2017-10-14-wisconsin.html
[4] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935382
[6] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-rutgers-advanced-statistical-profile
[7] http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/164/rutgers-scarlet-knights
[8] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/545559/kyle-bolin
[9] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3127375/giovanni-rescigno
[10] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259302/johnathan-lewis
[11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_laws_of_New_Jersey
Badgers (Particularly Those Named Jonathan Taylor) Can Gallop 16-19 MPH [2]
Wisconsin, as usual, possessed a strong running game with an elite running back. The current regeneration of the Wisconsin Time Lord Starting Running Back is Jonathan Taylor, who absolutely shredded the Boilermaker defense. He managed 219 yards on 30 carries, netting 7.30 yards per rush. The Badgers on the day had 302 yards on 50 carries, netting 6.04 yards per rush. That's a great day when facing a Boilermaker defense that has allowed 4.67 yards per rush this season [3,4].
These numbers show a Boilermaker defense that is vulnerable to a strong rushing attack, particularly an elite running back. However, when breaking down the individual rushing statistics on the day I noticed something intriguing:
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| Figure 1: Wisconsin Individual Rushing Statistics |
We Looked A Gift Horse In The Mouth
Wisconsin's three turnovers gave the Boilers excellent opportunities to be in scoring position. Purdue's average field position was the Purdue 40 yard line, with three of the Boilers' nine drives beginning within Wisconsin territory. On those prime opportunities, the Boilermaker offense only managed 3 points. Given Purdue averaged a point per drive on the game, the Boilers wasted opportunities to take advantage of excellent field position. [5]
This Is Your Offense On A Very Good Defense
Purdue's struggles on drives with excellent field position came down to Wisconsin just being a strong defensive team, and holding the Boilers back on all drives. The Boilermaker offense managed only 221 yards on the day, with an average of 4.02 yards per play.
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| Figure 2: Purdue Offensive Performance v. Wisconsin Compared to Season Averages [3,4] |
Individual performances are given in figures 3 and 4. There really isn't much to say besides the Badgers are a defense that held Purdue to a sluggish offensive day. Sindelar was again below 50% in completions, with a number of defenders dropping what should have been interceptions, although this is against the strongest defenses he has faced. Blough was sacked twice on his only two dropbacks. None of the running backs had an opportunity to succeed, although Knox and Worship managed above the Badgers' average yards per rush allowed. The main oddity is the less-than-mobile Sindelar having scrambling opportunities against a strong Badger defense. This may be a fluke, or a possible area to exploit when defenses totally neglect to defend the possibility.
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| Figure 3: Individual Purdue Passing Statistics [3,5] |
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| Figure 4: Individual Purdue Rushing Statistics [3,5] |
B-Word Update
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| Figure 5: Purdue Win Distribution [1] |
The Birthplace of College Football and Weird, Weird Sandwiches
Ah Rutgers. It's a college older than the United States. It was the birthplace of the "fat sandwich", the infamous and amazing combination of random things (burger patties, mozzarella sticks, chicken fingers, french fries, cheesesteak, etc.) put onto a sub. (For Purdue folks, imagine if State Street was lined with multiple Famous Frank's trucks. That's Rutgers.) It was also the site of the first game of intercollegiate football in 1869, which was won by Rutgers. That marked the peak of Rutgers football.
 |
| Figure 6: Rutgers Team Statistics [4,6] |
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| Figure 7: Rutgers Quarterbacks' Statistics [4,7,8,9,10] |
The Rutgers defense has done an excellent job stopping the run, allowing 4.32 yards per rush (compared to a national average of 4.89 yards per rush, and Purdue's rushing offense of 5.16 yards per rush). For a Purdue unit still missing Tario Fuller this will be a test, although Knox and Jones have put in solid performances the last few weeks. The pass defense for the Scarlet Knights has struggled like someone trying to buy one of NJ's population-limited liquor licenses (yes, there are states with tighter liquor restrictions than Indiana) [11]. With Rutgers allowing 6.99 yards per dropback (national average: 6.23 yards per drop back), this should be an opportunity for a Boilermaker offense passing on 57.50% of its plays to rack up yards and improve on its 5.87 yards per dropback. In particular, Blough and Sindelar may find more time to throw the ball with the Scarlet Knights only managing a sack on 3.65% of opponent dropbacks (compared to a national average 6.26% and Purdue allowing 8.70% of dropbacks to end in a sack) [4].
S&P+ is giving the Boilers a 60% chance of prevailing on the banks of the Raritan, with a projected score of 26.4-22.0. I'm a bit more bullish on the Boilers than S&P+, mainly because of the match-up of a pass-happy Boilermaker offense against a terrible Rutgers pass defense. So Rutgers fans... Saturday may be an opportunity to rub in Indiana's face your far superior Italian food and bagels [1].
Boiler Up!
For those confused about my over-the-top discussion of NJ's odd regulations and culinary delights, I grew up in a mix of Northern Virginia and central New Jersey before attending Purdue and then moving to the Indianapolis area.
References:
[1] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-purdue-advanced-statistical-profile
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badger
[3] https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2017-10-14-wisconsin.html
[4] http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs
[5] http://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=400935382
[6] https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-rutgers-advanced-statistical-profile
[7] http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/164/rutgers-scarlet-knights
[8] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/545559/kyle-bolin
[9] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3127375/giovanni-rescigno
[10] http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4259302/johnathan-lewis
[11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_laws_of_New_Jersey
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