Speak With Data

Well, there we have it. Win number one of the season. That it comes in week four, to a ranked opponent, is odd in a number of ways. The first is, per S&P+, Purdue's second order wins (i.e., wins expected based on how a team plays) is 2.8, with the way Purdue played anticipating a record closer to 3-1 than 1-3. The second is that Purdue's easiest opponent was Eastern Michigan (74th), their second easiest Northwestern (60th), with Boston College as the second best team Purdue has played at 41st. Purdue, 45th in S&P+ beat them by 17, with the neutral field point spread 0.6 points in BC's favor. The Boiler's toughest opponent so far was Mizzou, currently 27th in S&P+. The third is that while BC is run focused team, running the ball 63.23% of plays, they have a stellar 9.21 yards per dropback (FBS average: 6.75), fed off the play action game. While Purdue's relatively stronger run defense could be trusted to shutdown the Eagle's rushing attack, it would h...

This is a game, going in, I expected us to be absolutely destroyed in, maybe able to keep the score in check with ball control with our strong run game. Instead, we couldn't run the ball, and kept it close with a very effective passing game. There was also an electric atmosphere in Ross-Ade, which shocks me every time I see it, but definitely makes me very happy. While it was another painful, late game loss, I felt somehow positive walking out of Ross-Ade Stadium. And still in someways positive looking at stats this week. This week, there were some unexpected events related to our cat that came up that took most of the time I typically use to write this article. However, I did get a number of charts ready, so do with them what you will. Figure 1: Drive Stats for Purdue and Mizzou Figure 2: Mizzou Individual Passing Statistics Figure 3: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics Figure 4: Purdue Individual Rushing Statistics Figure 5: Mizzou Individual Rushing Stati...

Whelp, that happened. There is a lot that didn't go well. Some of that is due to the weather. Some of it was due to bad play. Some of it was due to the fact that Eastern Michigan, despite being a historically challenged programs, has become a decent football team. But First, Some Weird Optimism  While preparing the statistics for this post, among the major issues was a very strange, very positive stat. There is probably a factor of small sample size size here, but Purdue is currently leading the nation in yards per rush (as usual, with sacks excluded): Figure 1: Top 20 Rushing Offenses in FBS [1] And it really isn't that close. The 0.63 yards per rush that separate second place Memphis and Purdue is greater than the separation between Memphis and eighth place Central Florida. For all of these teams, having an excellent rushing offense powers an above average performance in terms of yards per play. This is true even for teams that (like Purdue) have struggled to thro...

Football's back. And so is doing math with it and being frustrated with it. Given its week 1, and the sample sizes are incredibly low, everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Rondale Moore Wins The Small Sample Size Heisman If there is a single thing to come out of last Thursday's game, it is the incredible talent of the true freshman from Louisville. Moore's numbers, on first glance, are absolutely incredible: Figure 1: Purdue Individual Rushing Statistics [1,3] Figure 2: Purdue Individual Receiving Statistics [1]  Moore's pure explosiveness is the difference between the Purdue rushing attack ranking 2nd in the nation and it ranking 30th (tied with Colorado). While that would still be a pretty potent attack, being second only behind Oklahoma is a nice place to be - even if a small sample size plays a big role in that [1,2]. Figure 2: Rondale Moore Rate Statistics Per Quarter [1,3]  One interesting thing to note: Moore was his most explosi...

Isaac Haas, after fracturing his elbow in a first round win over Cal State Fullerton, could miss the remainder of the NCAA tournament (although practiced today with a brace, so all hope is not lost). Haas’s dominance in the paint has been a critical part of the Boilermaker offense all season, so missing him could be devastating for the Boiler’s chances of reaching a Final Four. But how devastating [1]? Per sports-reference, Haas’s Box Plus Mins (i.e., contribution over an average player to points over 100 possessions) is 3.9 on offense, 2.8 on defense, and 6.6 overall (sports-reference’s rounding at one decimal place produces an error that means defensive and offensive numbers do not add to exactly the overall). Combining that with KenPom’s team efficiencies per 100 possessions, one can estimate what the impact of Haas’s contributions being lost would mean. The loss of Haas would dramatically impact the Boilermaker team, dropping the team from a +26.90 rating on KenPom (i.e. expe...

Yes, I know the bowl game was almost a month ago and I promised a significant amount more content than I actually produced. However, the current project in my day job has taken most of my time, bandwidth, and energy, so that significantly delayed this post. But it’s here. Finally. The stat summary for Purdue’s first bowl victory since before I became a brother of Kappa Kappa Psi. Purdue Quarterback: ACLs Not Required Elijah Sindelar is only the latest player to have suffered an ACL tear as a result of whatever is in the West Lafayette water causing the injury endemic for Boilermakers of all sports. Sindelar’s performance while playing injured since the Northwestern game as been pretty decent, including the Foster Farms Bowl [1]. Figure 1: Purdue Individual Passing Statistics [2,3] Sindelar, with only a single functioning knee, threw 53 passes for 396 yards, with a completion percentage of 62.26% and 6.61 yards per dropback. Given the Boilers were facing an Arizona de...

It’s official! Purdue is in a bowl game! On 27 December at 8:30pm EST on Fox the Boilers will take on the Wildcats of Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. This preview will include both information about the destination and sponsor in addition to the football preview. If you just want football talk, skip to the heading “Didn’t We Already Beat Arizona This Season?” Where Is This Game? The Foster Farms Bowl is held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, where the San Francisco 49ers “play football”. Santa Clara is just outside San Jose, CA, and is known for being where Levi’s Stadium is and being home to the Santa Clara Vanguard. Look, I’m not from California, so the only things I know about this town are related to football and drum corps. Google is from California, and so provided these lovely maps to help place Santa Clara. Figure 1: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, and the San Francisco Bay Area [1] For those attending the game, you have the option of three airports:...